How is Predict.fun's FDV calculated for this market?

FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price at the market's resolution time.

When does this Predict.fun FDV market resolve?

The market is set to resolve at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch, with the listed market resolution date shown as January 1, 2028.

What counts as the Predict.fun token launch?

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched for this market.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking?

PolySpotter is tracking $6,471 in smart money on this market, with recent alerts including a wallet cluster buying No, a profitable whale fading the launch, and sharp crypto bettors buying Yes.

Part of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Q: What is the Predict.fun $400M FDV prediction market about?

It is a crypto prediction market on whether Predict.fun's governance token will have a fully diluted valuation greater than $400 million one day after launch.

This prediction market asks whether Predict.fun's governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $400 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The market resolves based on the token being actively, publicly transferable and tradable, with FDV calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. PolySpotter is tracking $6,471 in smart money activity, including alerts from whale and sharp crypto-bettor wallets on both Yes and No positions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,513.

Categories: Crypto, Predict.fun, FDV, Pre-Market, fdv

Notable Trades

96% winner adding to YES

Sharp 96% winner is buying Yes across related Predict.fun FDV markets, including a fresh add near the current 75¢ price on a thin market.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved trades and is up $13.2K lifetime.
They bought Yes twice, including a fresh $2.4K add at 75¢ after an earlier 40¢ entry moved to 76¢.
This is part of a 3-market Predict.fun thesis, with the trade equal to about half of recent daily volume.

$6,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner cross-market bet

Sharp 96% lifetime winner is adding a Yes position while also trading across three related Predict.fun launch markets.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved trades and is up $13.2k lifetime.
They are positioned across 3 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader launch-valuation thesis.
The market is relatively quiet today, and this $2.4k buy is nearly half of 24h volume.

$6,323 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner cross-market bet

Sharp 96% lifetime winner is adding a Yes position while also trading across three related Predict.fun launch markets.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved trades and is up $13.2k lifetime.
They are positioned across 3 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader launch-valuation thesis.
The market is relatively quiet today, and this $2.4k buy is nearly half of 24h volume.

$1,799 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

17-wallet cluster buying No

A 17-wallet funded cluster is taking the contrarian No side on a crypto FDV market, though this specific entry is modest and the wallet’s standalone track record is only mildly positive.

17 linked wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction behind this position.
The trade is buying No at 25¢ while the market prices Yes around 74%, making it a contrarian crypto valuation bet.
This wallet is up about $29K lifetime across $1.25M traded, though its win rate is near even.

$1,220 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%

96% winner cross-market bet

Sharp 96% lifetime winner is adding a Yes position while also trading across three related Predict.fun launch markets.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved trades and is up $13.2k lifetime.
They are positioned across 3 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader launch-valuation thesis.
The market is relatively quiet today, and this $2.4k buy is nearly half of 24h volume.

$2,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner adding to YES

Sharp 96% winner is buying Yes across related Predict.fun FDV markets, including a fresh add near the current 75¢ price on a thin market.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved trades and is up $13.2K lifetime.
They bought Yes twice, including a fresh $2.4K add at 75¢ after an earlier 40¢ entry moved to 76¢.
This is part of a 3-market Predict.fun thesis, with the trade equal to about half of recent daily volume.

$4,470 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

Sharp serial crypto bettor

Sharp serial cross-market wallet with an 82% win rate and strong lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes on a Predict.fun FDV market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $134,806 lifetime.
They have traded across 26 related events with the same 82% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
Selling No at 35¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 65¢, slightly above the current market price.

$1,431 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Sharp wallet buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% resolved win rate is effectively buying Yes across related Predict.fun markets.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $153K lifetime.
They are positioning across 3 related markets, putting $4.2K behind the same event thesis.
Selling No at 37¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 63¢, near the current market price.

$1,405 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable new whale fades launch

A repeat new-wallet whale with early profits is making a sizable cross-market bet against Predict.fun clearing a $400M FDV, and the market has already moved sharply in their favor.

This 15-day-old wallet has already had 27 large-bet alerts and is up $13.3K so far.
They sold $10.4K of Yes across three fills, effectively buying No at about 22¢ before the market moved toward them.
The bet is large for a quiet market, equal to about 87% of recent daily volume.

$10,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

84% winner buying NO

Sharp bettor with an 84% resolved-bet win rate and +$43k lifetime P&L bought No at 36¢ despite only a modest alert score.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
They bought No at 36¢, taking the less popular side against a market pricing Yes around 63%.
The market is fairly quiet today with only $2.7k in 24h volume, so a $1.5k buy is meaningful flow.

$1,510 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%