What is the Predict.fun FDV above $400M market predicting?

It predicts whether Predict.fun’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation greater than $400 million one day after launch. If the FDV is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves Yes; otherwise, it resolves No.

How will Predict.fun’s FDV be calculated?

The market rules define FDV as total token supply multiplied by the token price. That value is checked at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token’s launch.

What counts as the Predict.fun token launch?

For this market, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. A private allocation, announcement, or non-transferable token event would not qualify on its own.

When does this market resolve?

The market resolves based on the FDV one day after launch, specifically at 4:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. The listed market end date is January 1, 2028, but the actual outcome depends on when the token launches.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter shows $1,510 in tracked smart money activity from 1 signal. A recent alert flagged a repeat new-wallet whale and an 84% winner buying NO, which may be useful context but does not guarantee the outcome.

Part of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?

This market asks whether Predict.fun’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $400 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the token must be publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,510 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including a recent NO buy from an 84% winner.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,017.

Categories: Crypto, Predict.fun, FDV, Pre-Market, fdv

Notable Trades

Profitable new whale fades launch

A repeat new-wallet whale with early profits is making a sizable cross-market bet against Predict.fun clearing a $400M FDV, and the market has already moved sharply in their favor.

This 15-day-old wallet has already had 27 large-bet alerts and is up $13.3K so far.
They sold $10.4K of Yes across three fills, effectively buying No at about 22¢ before the market moved toward them.
The bet is large for a quiet market, equal to about 87% of recent daily volume.

$10,365 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

84% winner buying NO

Sharp bettor with an 84% resolved-bet win rate and +$43k lifetime P&L bought No at 36¢ despite only a modest alert score.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved bets and is up $43k lifetime.
They bought No at 36¢, taking the less popular side against a market pricing Yes around 63%.
The market is fairly quiet today with only $2.7k in 24h volume, so a $1.5k buy is meaningful flow.

$1,510 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Repeat new-wallet whale

A 5-day-old wallet has already made 12 sizable bets totaling $21k and is adding another $3.1k into this market, which makes it a credible new-wallet conviction signal despite no resolved track record yet.

This 5-day-old wallet has already triggered 12 large-bet alerts with $21k flagged in total
It just put $3.1k into Yes in two buys at 35-36¢, showing fresh conviction rather than profit-taking
At 35-36¢, the bettor is paying a price that implies this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market thinks

$3,142 on Yes