Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?
This Polymarket asks whether the official CME settlement price for front-month NYMEX Crude Oil (CL) futures will reach $85 or lower on any trading day before the end of June 2026. Traders use this market to price the chances of a significant drop in oil prices, based on the active-month contract's official settlement. The market resolves on June 30, 2026, and current smart money tracking shows limited but notable activity from an oil trader with an 89% win rate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,261.
Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil
Notable Trades
89% win-rate oil trader
A highly profitable 89% win-rate trader is expressing a cross-market thesis in crude oil, and this sell converts into a buyable No position at an attractive price.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.58M lifetime across nearly 1,000 bets
- They are trading 3 related oil markets at once, which suggests a broader event view rather than a random one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 69¢ is equivalent to buying No at 31¢, a low-priced way to follow a proven trader against a market that has already jumped 17 points this week
$2,261 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xe734...4f0c — Yes, $17,202 (39% win rate)
- 0x5f45...a77a — No, $8,500 (62% win rate)
- 0xf350...f3ff — Yes, $6,202 (51% win rate)
- 0x5714...119d — Yes, $4,835
- 0x2b26...b3f6 — No, $3,202 (47% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $2,934 (78% win rate)
- 0xf27d...e6d3 — No, $2,797
- 0xe94b...5abe — No, $2,514 (73% win rate)
- 0xe40f...3dd6 — No, $2,446
- 0x61ee...932c — Yes, $1,923 (64% win rate)
