When does the Raul Castro Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, based on whether qualifying U.S. federal charges or an indictment announcement occurred.

What counts as a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome requires a formal charge or announced criminal indictment by the United States federal government against former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro.

What sources determine the market outcome?

The primary resolution source is official information from U.S. government sources. A broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used to support resolution.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $1,002 in smart money exposure and one signal, including alerts such as a profitable wallet breakout buy and activity from a profitable 78% bettor.

Part of: US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

Q: What is the Raul Castro federal charges prediction market about?

This market predicts whether the U.S. federal government will formally charge or announce a criminal indictment of Raul Castro before the resolution deadline.

This prediction market asks whether the United States federal government will formally charge or announce a criminal indictment of former Cuban leader Raul Castro by June 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,002 in smart money activity on this market, including a profitable wallet breakout buy signal. The market resolves based primarily on official U.S. government sources, with credible reporting used if needed.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,911.

Categories: Trump, Cuba President, communism, Geopolitics, fidel, Cuba, indict

Notable Trades

Profitable 78% bettor

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 78% record bought Yes on a fast-moving political market despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up $25,084 lifetime.
They bought Yes at 71¢ before the market moved to 80¢, showing good timing on a fast-rising market.
The market is up 65.5 points this week, suggesting broader momentum behind the same thesis.

$1,002 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable wallet breakout buy

A profitable high-volume wallet bought Yes as the market broke sharply above its prior range, with strong 1-day momentum corroborating the move.

This bettor is up $139k lifetime across $2.5M in resolved volume despite only winning 53% of bets.
They bought Yes at 70¢ during a major breakout, and the market has already moved to 74¢.
The price is up 48.5 points in one day, suggesting broader momentum behind the trade.

$1,910 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

Top Holders

0xb4f2...e5fa — Outcome 21481716, $15,554 (69% win rate)
0x6df6...8458 — Outcome 21481716, $4,251 (68% win rate)
0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 21481716, $3,223 (34% win rate)
0x0726...a285 — Outcome 21481716, $1,310
0x56c2...6219 — Outcome 21481716, $1,000
0x1680...e732 — Outcome 21481716, $1,000
0xba8d...009d — Outcome 21481716, $970
0xde8f...8fd8 — Outcome 21481716, $927 (78% win rate)
0x3879...d8c3 — Outcome 21481716, $921
0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 21481716, $633 (40% win rate)

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US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?

36dUS federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?$2,911 tracked2 signalsTrumpCuba PresidentcommunismGeopoliticsfidelCubaindict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes”

85¢

55¢

25¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction