Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,218.

Notable Trades

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

A proven high-volume wallet with an 86% win rate is making a sizable bet on a relatively quiet Hungarian election market, which is worth surfacing despite only moderate composite score.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $166.8k across more than $5.0M invested
  • They bought No at 73¢ in a market with only $4.2k of 24-hour volume, so this single trade was 73% of today's activity
  • This wallet trades across 151 markets in 106 events, which suggests a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt

$3,076 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

A proven high-win-rate political trader with activity across 104 events just placed a sizable fresh bet on NO in this Hungary market, making it worth following despite only moderate composite score.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $161k lifetime
  • They trade across 104 events and 149 markets, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They just put $6.1k into NO, equal to 77% of this market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction

$6,142 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $36,604
  2. 0x06be...8615 Yes, $14,567
  3. 0xc7b8...8664 Yes, $13,595
  4. 0xe52c...6924 No, $12,366 (86% win rate)
  5. 0x4bdf...709d Yes, $4,980
  6. 0xd8c4...26bf Yes, $3,700
  7. 0xf6bb...48ba Yes, $3,381
  8. 0x9f83...6cd9 No, $3,302
  9. 0xd9b6...ae76 Yes, $2,726
  10. 0xaa0d...c5fd Yes, $2,259

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

11d$9,218 tracked2 signalsPoliticsElectionsHungaryGlobal ElectionsOrbanMagyarHungary Election
Yes
26¢
No
75¢

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.

Notable Trades

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

4h ago

$3,076 on No at 73¢

73¢75¢2¢

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?

5d ago

$6,142 on No at 76¢

76¢75¢1¢

Related Theses

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | PolySpotter