What does the Predict.fun $800M FDV market measure?

It measures whether Predict.fun’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $800 million one day after launch.

How is Predict.fun’s FDV calculated?

FDV is calculated by multiplying the token’s total supply by its token price.

What counts as the token launch?

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as launched.

When is the market evaluated?

The market is evaluated at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token’s launch, with the listed market resolution date of January 1, 2028.

What recent smart money activity has this market seen?

The metadata reports $1,015 in tracked smart money and one signal, with recent activity showing a high-confidence winner buying Yes.

Part of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This Predict.fun Polymarket-style market resolves Yes if Predict.fun’s governance token reaches a fully diluted valuation above $800 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch; otherwise, it resolves No. Live Yes/No odds were not provided in the metadata, while tracked smart money totals $1,015 across one signal, indicating recent Yes buying.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,563.

Categories: Crypto, Predict.fun, FDV, Pre-Market, fdv

Notable Trades

96% winner buying Yes

Surfacing because a highly profitable 96% win-rate wallet is buying Yes and has related cross-market positioning despite only moderate trade size.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved bets and is up $13.2K lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 40¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 40% market price.

$1,015 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner buying Yes

Surfacing because a highly profitable 96% win-rate wallet is buying Yes and has related cross-market positioning despite only moderate trade size.

This bettor has won 25 of 26 resolved bets and is up $13.2K lifetime.
They are positioning across 2 related Predict.fun markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 40¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current 40% market price.

$2,095 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?

A proven 88% win-rate trader with broad cross-market experience is making a fresh five-figure NO bet in a niche crypto launch market at 84¢, suggesting confidence that the current 86% odds are still justified.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 81 bets and has traded 106 events.
They made a fresh $10.5k buy on NO at 84¢, a sizable bet in a market with only $16k of 24-hour volume.
They also trade related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$10,453 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%