Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,093.

Categories: China, GDP, Macro Indicators, Economy

Notable Trades

New wallet macro whale

A 7-day-old wallet made a $6.1k buy into a macro market with only $1.3k of 24h volume, suggesting meaningful fresh conviction in a relatively quiet book.

  • A 7-day-old wallet dropped $6.1k on one side of this market with no prior history here
  • The trade was 4.9x the market's 24-hour volume and about 62% of listed liquidity
  • They paid 67¢ in a tight market, showing clear conviction that this range is still undervalued

$6,093 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xcc03...d5c0 No, $28,839 (67% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $14,265
  3. 0x5927...93dd Yes, $9,156
  4. 0xe258...d084 No, $7,278 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x57b0...76f4 Yes, $4,791
  6. 0xf64b...e382 Yes, $3,000
  7. 0xffd2...d7ae Yes, $2,300 (43% win rate)
  8. 0xcf07...c770 Yes, $2,275 (31% win rate)
  9. 0x7e01...63be Yes, $2,000
  10. 0x3ffe...e125 Yes, $1,760

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

Resolved$6,093 tracked1 signalChinaGDPMacro IndicatorsEconomy
Yes
70¢
No
31¢

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Price History — “Yes
71¢
67¢
64¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

4h ago

$6,093 on Yes at 67¢

67¢70¢3¢