Part of: US economic state at the end of 2026?
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether the US economy will be overheating at the end of 2026, using Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment and inflation data in its resolution rules. Current odds are not included in the supplied market data; the market is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,376.
Categories: Economy, unemployment, Inflation
Notable Trades
Conviction buyer adding to Yes
The wallet added a sizable Yes position in a quiet market as the price broke sharply above its recorded historical range, though it has no resolved track record.
- The bettor added $2,376 to an existing Yes position, bringing their total investment to about $5,271.
- Yes has risen from the recorded 37¢ range to 88¢ amid just $40 in 24-hour volume, a sharp move in a thin market.
$2,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $6,661
- 0x0ffc...8236 — Yes, $3,465 (51% win rate)
- 0xd03c...68cf — Yes, $3,357
- 0x8314...0b88 — Yes, $2,895 (100% win rate)
- 0xefac...c9a1 — No, $970 (55% win rate)
- 0x21ff...0d71 — No, $614
- 0xad53...ef24 — No, $476
- 0x460a...d738 — No, $289 (54% win rate)
- 0x17b8...d5d1 — No, $283 (73% win rate)
- 0xe338...64ad — No, $230
Related Theses
Neither company joins the list
Covers 2 related markets
