Part of: World Cup Winner
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $179,291.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
92% winner buying longshot
Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet record is buying Portugal World Cup Yes at 6%, making the wallet track record the main signal despite the modest size in a liquid market.
- This bettor has won 11 of 12 resolved bets and is up $1,443 lifetime.
- They are buying Portugal at 6¢, a longshot price with large upside if their read is right.
- The wallet’s past wins came at much higher average odds, suggesting a real record of finding mispriced markets.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
New whale event portfolio
Repeat new wallet has placed over $120k in flagged bets and is building a $57.7k cross-market World Cup position, though its resolved track record is still thin.
- This new wallet has already made 23 flagged large bets totaling about $121k.
- It is spreading $57.7k across 5 World Cup markets, suggesting a deliberate tournament thesis.
- Entry at 5¢ is a long-shot position with large upside if Portugal’s title odds rebound.
$3,301 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
98% winner event thesis
A high-win-rate wallet is building a cross-market World Cup position, though the Portugal leg is small relative to liquidity and the wallet’s past profits are modest.
- This bettor has won 64 of 65 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
- They have put about $19K across 3 markets in the same World Cup event.
- Portugal at 6¢ is a long-shot entry, so the upside is large if their thesis is right.
$1,050 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 99%
91% winner buying longshot
Sharp profitable wallet with a 91% resolved-bet win rate is buying Portugal World Cup Yes at 6%, making the wallet track record the main signal despite the liquid market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved bets and is up $62.8K lifetime.
- They bought Portugal at 6¢, a longshot price with large upside if their edge is real.
- This wallet has been flagged multiple times before and has 35 resolved positions of track record.
$2,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% winner backing long shot
Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate is buying Portugal Yes at 8¢ despite a highly liquid market.
- This bettor has won 22 of 24 resolved bets and is positive lifetime.
- They bought Portugal at 8¢, a long-shot entry with large upside if their read is right.
- Their past wins came at roughly coin-flip prices, suggesting real edge rather than just favorites.
$1,441 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
New profitable repeat whale
A 14-day-old wallet with early profit is making its fourth flagged large bet, adding $5k on Portugal at 6¢ despite the market being very liquid.
- This new wallet is already up $7.2k after one resolved win.
- It has now made 4 flagged large bets totaling $14.7k in under 14 days.
- Entry at 6¢ is a long-shot World Cup bet with meaningful upside if Portugal gains momentum.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp World Cup portfolio bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% historical win rate is adding a Portugal Yes position as part of a broader World Cup portfolio across five markets.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $156K lifetime.
- They have $26K positioned across five World Cup markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside long shot if their Portugal view is right.
$2,511 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
75% winner in funded cluster
Surfaced because a proven 75% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying Portugal Yes, with additional funded-cluster context despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor has won 75% of 487 resolved bets and is up $1.6K lifetime.
- Four wallets tied to the same funder have appeared together across prior runs.
- Entry at 9¢ implies an ~11x payout if Portugal wins.
$1,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
90% winner re-entering longshot
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved-bet record and +$25.7k P&L is re-entering Portugal Yes at 8¢ despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $25.7k lifetime.
- They previously put $12.3k into this same Portugal Yes position and are buying again at 8¢.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a longshot payout if they are right, with recent odds drifting slightly upward.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
90% winner re-entering longshot
Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved-bet record and +$25.7k P&L is re-entering Portugal Yes at 8¢ despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved bets and is up $25.7k lifetime.
- They previously put $12.3k into this same Portugal Yes position and are buying again at 8¢.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a longshot payout if they are right, with recent odds drifting slightly upward.
$1,350 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 31940783, $52,325,995
- 0x04e1...b968 — Outcome 45415751, $876,636
- 0x2663...ed1f — Outcome 45415751, $844,407 (35% win rate)
- 0x5fae...78f1 — Outcome 45415751, $735,038
- 0xdd11...93b0 — Outcome 45415751, $705,303
- 0xf031...c80c — Outcome 45415751, $683,314 (88% win rate)
- 0x10c9...85e4 — Outcome 45415751, $622,817
- 0x7765...ccb8 — Outcome 45415751, $581,094 (100% win rate)
- 0xf7a5...c539 — Outcome 45415751, $527,811
- 0xc31d...4ebe — Outcome 45415751, $521,758 (52% win rate)
Related Theses
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