Part of: US economic state at the end of 2026?

Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the US economy will be in a “soft landing” at the end of 2026, using Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment and CPI inflation data as the key inputs. The market is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2027, after the relevant economic releases are available. PolySpotter is tracking $1,434 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,434.

Categories: Economy, CPI, unemployment, Inflation

Notable Trades

High-win bettor in quiet market

A high-win-rate wallet made a fresh Yes bet that was over 9x the market's 24h volume in a very quiet long-dated macro market.

  • This bettor has won 86% of 315 resolved trades and is up about $3.5k lifetime.
  • The $1.4k Yes buy was more than 9x the market’s past-day volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 38¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus current Yes odds near 36–37¢.

$1,434 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1f9e...4f1a Yes, $1,553 (39% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $986
  3. 0x8b1c...1ec7 No, $634
  4. 0x1ee9...197f Yes, $394 (67% win rate)
  5. 0x21ff...0d71 No, $217
  6. 0x0380...073d No, $210 (56% win rate)
  7. 0xe7fe...24e5 Yes, $210
  8. 0xd218...b5c9 No, $205 (49% win rate)
  9. 0x014c...820c No, $203 (41% win rate)
  10. 0xc7d0...1f8a No, $167

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Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

192dUS economic state at the end of 2026?$1,434 tracked1 signalEconomyCPIunemploymentInflation
Yes
53¢
No
47¢

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

Price History — “Yes
55¢
47¢
40¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?

21d ago

$1,434 on Yes at 38¢

38¢53¢15¢

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