Part of: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
This Polymarket covers the Counter-Strike 2 BO3 match between Aurora Gaming and Spirit in Round 2 of IEM Cologne Major Stage 3. The market resolves to the team that wins the match, with live odds updating as traders price Aurora vs Spirit and $3,521 in smart money tracked across 2 signals. Resolution is scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 23:25 UTC, unless the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the market rules.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Aurora Gaming and Spirit in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 12 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
26 smart money signals detected, totaling $663,118.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved history and positive lifetime P&L bought Spirit despite the market already being liquid and active.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,425 resolved bets, 71% winners, and about $72K in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 167 events and nearly $908K of flagged positioning.
- The market saw a 12.3x pre-event volume spike, suggesting broader attention before the match.
$1,033 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 71%
91% win-rate sharp
Surfaced because a highly profitable wallet with a 91% long-run win record bought Spirit despite the market now trading below their entry.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $125k lifetime.
- They bought Spirit at 87¢, while the market is now around 80¢, offering a better entry than the sharp paid.
- Market volume is running 12x above normal ahead of the match, adding momentum to the signal.
$2,488 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial esports bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 74% win rate and $2.1M lifetime profit bought $40.5k of Spirit amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved bets and is up $2.1M lifetime.
- They have traded 793 markets across 574 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- The $40.5k buy came as volume spiked 21x before the match.
$40,500 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable esports sharp on underdog
Surface because a highly profitable 80% lifetime bettor and other cross-market traders are taking the Aurora underdog side despite a liquid market.
- A bettor with an 80% record across 1,750 resolved bets is buying Aurora and is up $4.2M lifetime.
- Three wallets put $7.7K on the same Aurora side, with entries around 20–21¢.
- The market has heavy volume, so the edge is less about size and more about proven sharp bettors taking the underdog.
$7,703 on Aurora Gaming
Profitable wallet joins Aurora cluster
High-score esports alert with a profitable high-volume wallet joining a 9-wallet Aurora-side cluster amid a 30x pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has 1,266 resolved bets and is up about $640k lifetime.
- Nine wallets are positioned the same way on Aurora, totaling about $27k.
- Aurora was effectively bought at 45¢, while the market now offers a cheaper entry around 30¢.
$1,710 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 68%
81% winner backs favorite
Sharp esports bettor with an 81% win rate and strong cross-market history bought $1.5k of Spirit at 81¢.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $63k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 40 events with the same 81% hit rate.
- Buying Spirit at 81¢ signals confidence despite the market already pricing Spirit as the favorite.
$1,500 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 81%
13-wallet Spirit push
Large coordinated Spirit buying from 13 wallets, including profitable high-volume bettors and linked wallets, drove a major price move before the match.
- 13 wallets bought the same side for $74.8K, pushing Spirit from the high-50s to about 70%.
- Several bettors have strong records, including one up nearly $10M lifetime and another up $207K.
- Five linked wallets share a funder, adding $6.6K to the same Spirit position.
$74,809 on Spirit
Sharp esports whale buying dip
A highly profitable 80% winner with massive cross-market history bought Aurora alongside 9-wallet same-side flow despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $4.24M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 305 events with $4.7M in detected activity.
- Nine wallets bought Aurora in the same window for $27.4K total, while this entry near 31¢ offers a ~3.2x payout if right.
$1,278 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable wallet joins Aurora cluster
High-score esports alert with a profitable high-volume wallet joining a 9-wallet Aurora-side cluster amid a 30x pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has 1,266 resolved bets and is up about $640k lifetime.
- Nine wallets are positioned the same way on Aurora, totaling about $27k.
- Aurora was effectively bought at 45¢, while the market now offers a cheaper entry around 30¢.
$1,968 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial bettor cluster
A highly profitable serial trader is joining heavy one-sided Aurora flow, with 13 wallets buying the same outcome during a major pre-match volume spike.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 1,266 resolved bets and $640k in profit.
- 13 wallets are all betting Aurora, with $76k flowing the same way in this market.
- Volume spiked nearly 189x before the match, suggesting a sharp shift in attention toward Aurora.
$4,328 on Aurora Gaming | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x89dd...f662 — Aurora Gaming, $478,592 (100% win rate)
- 0xd3b0...329e — Spirit, $397,630 (61% win rate)
- 0x2c33...0563 — Aurora Gaming, $183,977 (62% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Spirit, $120,000 (78% win rate)
- 0xee00...cea1 — Aurora Gaming, $100,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x67bb...b6ef — Spirit, $91,667 (62% win rate)
- 0x1136...0c2e — Spirit, $81,318 (49% win rate)
- 0x99e4...e4c4 — Aurora Gaming, $64,133 (62% win rate)
- 0x1610...ae49 — Aurora Gaming, $51,895 (63% win rate)
- 0xcf6c...7e66 — Aurora Gaming, $51,544 (80% win rate)
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