Part of: Croatia Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Croatia Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
This prediction market covers the Croatia Open tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Daniel Merida Aguilar, scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with final resolution expected by July 22, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $13,541 in smart money across 2 signals.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,919.
Categories: Games, Sports, Tennis
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster drove odds
Three wallets, including two strong profitable bettors, bought Daniel Merida Aguilar heavily before a sharp move from mid-market to 90%.
- Three wallets bought $12.5K of Daniel Merida Aguilar, pushing the price up sharply toward 90%.
- Two of the bettors have strong records: one wins 78% over 227 resolved positions, another wins 93% over 98.
- One wallet is a major serial sports trader with $2.0M+ in tracked cross-market volume and a 69% win rate.
$12,541 on Daniel Merida Aguilar
Perfect-record bettor averaging down
A historically perfect sports bettor is adding to a large Tomas Etcheverry position despite the market moving sharply against him.
- This bettor is 22-for-22 on resolved positions and is up about $119K lifetime.
- They already have $25.7K on Tomas Etcheverry and just added more after the price fell hard.
- This is a risky contrarian sports bet: they entered this add at 32¢, while the market is now around 10¢.
$1,000 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 100%
78% winner caught move
Proven profitable sports bettor with a 78% win rate added a meaningful Daniel Merida Aguilar position at 46¢ before the market moved to 66¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $305K lifetime.
- They bought Daniel Merida Aguilar at 46¢, before the market moved to 66¢.
- This is a serial cross-market trader with 116 events tracked and a strong sports betting record.
$4,900 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial sports bettor
A high-volume, profitable serial sports trader is adding to Tomas Etcheverry at 61¢, with the market already moving up to the mid-60s.
- This bettor has made $159k profit across $4.4M invested and wins 64% of resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 358 events, suggesting a repeatable sports betting process.
- They are adding to an existing Etcheverry position at 61¢, and the market has already moved to about 66¢.
$4,715 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 66%
$20M-profit sports bettor
A massively profitable high-volume cross-market bettor is taking Daniel Merida Aguilar at 39¢, though the bet size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has a huge track record: 62% wins and about $20.7M in lifetime profit.
- They have traded across 3,913 markets, suggesting this is part of a broad sports-betting edge rather than a one-off punt.
- Buying Daniel at 39¢ is an underdog position, implying they see more upside than the current 40% market price.
$1,304 on Daniel Merida Aguilar | Wallet win rate: 62%
94% sharp scaling in
A proven 94% win-rate sports bettor with a strong edge is adding size to an existing Tomas Etcheverry position in a relatively small tennis market.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $24k lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing position, bringing total Tomas Etcheverry exposure above $12k.
- Their $4.5k add-on is large for a market with only $7.7k in 24h volume.
$4,459 on Tomas Etcheverry | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x658e...d758 — Outcome 59103093, $25,659 (100% win rate)
- 0x9f03...766d — Outcome 59103093, $16,101 (79% win rate)
- 0x1393...9cf8 — Outcome 59103093, $15,392 (98% win rate)
- 0x0cdf...ec9e — Outcome 59103093, $8,214 (94% win rate)
- 0xaa77...15a5 — Outcome 59103093, $7,730 (66% win rate)
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 59103093, $1,640 (69% win rate)
- 0x767a...8ac5 — Outcome 59103093, $1,420 (53% win rate)
- 0xcc57...2b3c — Outcome 59103093, $1,094 (100% win rate)
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 59103093, $1,069 (57% win rate)
- 0x60ec...f7b0 — Outcome 59103093, $992 (70% win rate)
Related Theses
Saudi Uruguay stays low scoring
Covers 3 related markets
