Part of: Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day will earn more at the domestic box office during its opening week than any other movie released in 2026. Current odds were not included in the provided market data; it resolves using final opening-week figures from The Numbers, with resolution scheduled for February 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,741.

Categories: Movies, Culture, The Odyssey, Spider-Man

Notable Trades

Large Yes position in quiet market

A $2,741 sell of No implies a sizable Yes position in a market flagged for unusually large trading relative to recent activity, though the wallet's record is not especially strong.

  • A $2,741 trade against No implies a substantial bet on Yes, large relative to the market's recent activity.
  • Yes has risen 13.5% over the past week, in line with the trade's direction.
  • The wallet has a large trading history but a 47% win rate, so its track record offers limited confirmation.

$2,741 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%

Related Theses

Oil swings between $85 and $105

Covers 4 related markets

Keiko Fujimori will win

Covers 2 related markets

Doomsday takes 2026’s biggest opening week

Covers 2 related markets

Spider-Man gross lands between $940M-$960M

Covers 3 related markets

Spider-Man grosses $800m–$900m domestically

Covers 2 related markets

Spider-Man opens between $260M-$280M

Covers 2 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

Mandalorian opens under $92M

Covers 3 related markets

Neither Film Leads 2026 Openings

Covers 2 related markets

Steyer advances, Hilton falls short

Covers 2 related markets

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?$2,741 tracked1 signalMoviesCultureThe OdysseySpider-Man
Yes
48¢
No
52¢

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Price History — “No”
67¢
59¢
51¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

2026-10-28 13:25 UTC

$2,741 on Yes at 41¢

41¢→48¢↑7¢

Related Theses