What does this WTI crude oil prediction market measure?

It measures whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures reaches a 1-minute candle high of at least $100 at any point between market creation and the end of April 2026.

How does this market resolve to Yes?

It resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle for the active month WTI futures contract posts a final high price of $100 or higher during the eligible period. If that never happens, the market resolves to No.

What is the active month for WTI futures?

The active month is the nearest listed WTI crude oil futures contract. It rolls to the next contract at 6:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days before the current contract's last trading day.

Why are traders watching the $100 WTI level?

A move to $100 oil is a major psychological and macroeconomic threshold. Prediction market traders often view it as a signal of tightening supply, geopolitical risk, stronger demand, or broader inflation pressure.

When does this Polymarket oil market resolve?

This market is set to resolve by April 30, 2026, based on whether WTI hits the $100 price threshold before that deadline.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

This prediction market asks whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures will print a 1-minute candle high of $100 or more at any time before the end of April 2026. Traders are pricing the odds of a sharp oil rally, with resolution based on the official high price in the active WTI futures contract during the market window. The market resolves by April 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $64,759.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil

Notable Trades

Profitable oil-event trader

A profitable trader with a real edge sold into a sharp rally in a major oil market, which converts to a buy on No around 24¢.

This bettor wins 75% of their resolved trades and has beaten the market by a wide margin.
They sold Yes at 76¢ after this market jumped 20.5 points in a day and 34 points in a week.
That sale translates to buying No at 24¢, a low-price bet that oil stays below $100 this month.

$1,904 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable new wallet pressing Yes

A 6-day-old wallet has repeatedly made sizable bets across 9 positions and is already profitable, and this latest buy leans into a strong upside move in an active oil market.

This 6-day-old wallet has already made 9 positions and is up $633, which is unusual this early.
They bought $1.4k of Yes at 78¢ after this market jumped 19.5 points in a day and 27 points in a week.
The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like conviction on the oil move than a random punt.

$1,430 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 29%

93% winner in funded cluster

A proven 93% win-rate trader from an 11-wallet funded cluster bought into a fast-rising oil market during an extreme volume spike, making this coordinated momentum bet worth tracking.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades across 61 markets and has traded nearly $2.0M total
11 wallets share the same funder, suggesting one actor is deploying capital across multiple accounts
The market just saw a 136.6x volume spike and is up about 29 points in a week, backing the move higher

$1,545 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp oil-event trader

A proven high-win-rate trader with nearly $400k in profit is building a broad cross-market thesis across 11 related oil markets, making this small buy notable despite the market's good liquidity.

This bettor wins 85% of their trades and is up about $395k lifetime
They have bet $61k across 11 related oil markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt
They bought Yes at 53¢ while this market has already moved up 12 points in a day, suggesting they still see upside

$1,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

85% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with nearly $395k in realized P&L is making a fresh cross-market bet across the same crude oil event, which is worth following despite the modest size of this individual fill.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
They have traded 11 markets in this same oil event for $61k total, showing a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Bought Yes at 58¢ while this market has already moved up 12.5 points in a day, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

$1,426 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Pro oil-event sharp

A proven profitable bettor with a 79% win rate is making a fresh cross-market oil-event bet after building a large 6-market thesis, which is worth following despite the modest ticket size.

This bettor wins 79% of their trades and is up about $262k over more than 1,000 resolved bets.
They have put $23.5k across 6 related oil markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
They bought Yes at 53¢ while this market has been moving higher, up 10 points in the last day.

$1,182 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

85% winner across 10 markets

A proven high-win-rate trader is expressing a broad thesis across 10 related oil markets, and this trade converts to buying Yes around 45¢.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $395k lifetime.
They have put $53.8k across 10 related oil markets, which points to a clear event-wide view rather than a one-off bet.
This trade sold No at 55¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 45¢ while the market sits around 43% Yes.

$1,106 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

86% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader with deep cross-market commodity/event exposure is adding a directional view here by effectively buying Yes at 40¢.

This bettor wins 86% of their resolved trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
They have traded 10 markets in this same event for nearly $55k total, which suggests a well-developed thesis rather than a one-off bet.
This sale of No at 60¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 40¢, close to the current 38-39¢ market.

$1,803 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

86% win-rate oil bettor

A proven sharp bettor with an 86% win rate and $403k profit is expressing a broad cross-market oil thesis, and this trade converts to buying Yes around 40¢.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
They have built a $52.9k position across 10 related oil markets, which points to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 40¢, while the market now sits around 38¢ to 39¢.

$1,807 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

86% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader with broad cross-market commodity positioning bought No at 62¢ in this WTI ladder market, suggesting a researched event-wide view rather than a one-off bet.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $403k lifetime.
They have bet across 10 related markets in this same WTI event, with more than $52k deployed.
Buying No at 62¢ implies they think $100 is still overpriced despite recent price strength.

$1,221 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%