When is the Houkes vs Carballes Baena match scheduled?

The match is scheduled for July 27, 2026, at 4:00 AM ET in Bonn.

When does this tennis prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve by August 3, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC, subject to the exchange’s resolution rules.

What smart money activity has this market seen?

PolySpotter tracks $121,998 in smart money and five signals, including coordinated wallet activity backing Roberto Carballes Baena and a sharp exit versus linked-wallet buying.

What happens if the match is canceled or has no winner?

The market follows the exchange’s stated resolution rules for a canceled match, a tie, or a match delayed more than seven days beyond the scheduled date.

Part of: Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Q: What is the Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena prediction market?

It is a Polymarket market on the Bonn tennis match between Max Houkes and Roberto Carballes Baena. The winning outcome is the player who advances.

This Polymarket tennis market tracks the Bonn match between Max Houkes and Roberto Carballes Baena, scheduled for July 27, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with $121,998 in tracked smart money and five signals; current odds are shown on the market page.

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,998.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Sharp exit versus linked-wallet buying

A highly profitable 96% bettor sold a large Roberto position while a separate 14-wallet, three-funder cluster bought Roberto, creating a notable but directionally conflicting tennis signal.

A bettor with a 96% win rate across 163 positions sold $32,700 of Roberto at 76–79¢, a meaningful exit by a proven trader.
Four additional wallets sold Roberto around 90¢, while 14 linked wallets reportedly bought $129,500 of the same outcome.
The market surged to 96% for Roberto after the sales, suggesting the sales were likely profit-taking rather than a fresh bearish position.

$41,124 on Max Houkes

14-wallet cluster backing Roberto

A highly profitable serial trader joined a 14-wallet, partially linked cluster that drove $129,504 into Roberto Carballes Baena amid an extreme volume spike.

Fourteen wallets bought Roberto Carballes Baena, including three linked by a shared funder, for $129,504 total.
This wallet has won 70% of 5,389 resolved bets and earned $426,418 in profit.
The trade entered at 90¢, while the outcome is now priced near 96¢ after a 3,610x volume spike.

$1,129 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 70%

14-wallet coordinated Roberto push

A strongly coordinated 14-wallet, three-funder-backed push toward Roberto coincided with an extreme volume spike and a move from 89% to 96%.

Fourteen wallets backed Roberto with $129,504, including three wallets sharing a funder.
Trading volume surged to 3,610 times its recent average across 40 trades.
The trade entered at 89% and the market has since moved to 96%; the wallet has 488 resolved bets and is up $17,839.

$1,711 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 61%

14-wallet cluster backs Roberto

Four large purchases from a serial trader, alongside 14 linked wallets and a dramatic price move, create a strong coordinated signal on Roberto Carballes Baena.

Four purchases totaling $58,680 added to an existing Roberto position at 90¢.
Fourteen wallets linked through three funders bought Roberto, committing $129,504 in coordinated flow.
The market moved sharply toward Roberto, now pricing the player at 96%.

$58,680 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 55%

96% win-rate serial bettor

A highly proven tennis-market bettor with a 96% win rate and $5.87M profit placed a fresh $5,000 position on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%.

This bettor has won 96% of 163 resolved positions and earned $5.87M in profit.
They placed a fresh $5,000 bet on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%, despite the market now pricing him at 56%.
The wallet has traded across 528 events, suggesting a deeply experienced and consistently successful strategy.

$19,354 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% win-rate serial bettor

A highly proven tennis-market bettor with a 96% win rate and $5.87M profit placed a fresh $5,000 position on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%.

This bettor has won 96% of 163 resolved positions and earned $5.87M in profit.
They placed a fresh $5,000 bet on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%, despite the market now pricing him at 56%.
The wallet has traded across 528 events, suggesting a deeply experienced and consistently successful strategy.

$10,000 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% win-rate serial bettor

A highly proven tennis-market bettor with a 96% win rate and $5.87M profit placed a fresh $5,000 position on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%.

This bettor has won 96% of 163 resolved positions and earned $5.87M in profit.
They placed a fresh $5,000 bet on Roberto Carballes Baena at 59%, despite the market now pricing him at 56%.
The wallet has traded across 528 events, suggesting a deeply experienced and consistently successful strategy.

$5,000 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% winner backs Roberto

A highly profitable serial bettor with a 96% win rate and $5.87M profit made a fresh $10,000 two-part bet on Roberto Carballes Baena.

This bettor has won 156 of 163 resolved positions, with a $5.87M lifetime profit and a 48% average win price.
They invested $10,000 across two buys on Roberto Carballes Baena at 58–59¢, near the market's current 57% odds.
The wallet has traded across 527 events and 569 markets, suggesting an established and repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.

$10,000 on Roberto Carballes Baena | Wallet win rate: 96%

Top Holders

0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 11146261, $200,000 (57% win rate)
0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 11146261, $6,009 (58% win rate)
0x9c76...c926 — Outcome 11146261, $2,500 (91% win rate)
0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 11146261, $2,093 (79% win rate)
0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 11146261, $1,341 (74% win rate)
0xeaac...d71d — Outcome 11146261, $1,341 (82% win rate)
0x50b9...4467 — Outcome 11146261, $1,300 (56% win rate)
0x8dae...125c — Outcome 11146261, $870
0x99f0...9495 — Outcome 11146261, $852 (49% win rate)
0xfb07...e2cc — Outcome 11146261, $800

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Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena

5dBonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena$146,998 tracked8 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Max Houkes and Roberto Carballes Baena in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Houkes' if Max Houkes advances against Roberto Carballes Baena. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Max Houkes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Roberto Carballes Baena”

60¢

54¢

49¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction