Part of: 2025-2026 FA Cup Winner

Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,285.

Categories: Soccer, Sports, FA Cup

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 77% win rate and +$254,917 lifetime P&L bought Manchester City Yes at 74¢.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $254,917 lifetime.
They have traded across 39 events and 47 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
Entry at 74¢ implies they still see value despite Manchester City already being the heavy favorite.

$1,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Sharp linked-wallet buyer

Modestly sharp bettor with a 76% resolved win rate is buying Yes, backed by a recurring 5-wallet funded cluster signal.

This bettor has won 76% of 25 resolved bets and is up $855 lifetime.
The wallet belongs to a 5-wallet group funded by the same address, with repeat activity across prior scans.
They bought Yes at 72¢ on a liquid FA Cup market, signaling confidence despite the current price near 70¢.

$1,164 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Funded cluster buying Yes

A high-scoring linked-wallet cluster is buying Yes, supported by one-sided flow and wallets with profitable track records.

Multiple linked wallets are betting the same way, with 3 wallets buying $4.2K of Yes around 72¢.
Two participating wallets win about 76–79% of resolved bets, and all three shown wallets are profitable overall.
The market is liquid but not huge, so this coordinated buy is meaningful relative to $23K in 24h volume.

$4,181 on Yes

88% winner buying Yes

Sharp-wallet override: an 88% lifetime winner with strong positive P&L bought $4.6k of Man City Yes in a relatively quiet FA Cup market.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $123.7k lifetime.
They bought $4.6k of Yes, more than the market’s entire 24h volume.
They previously closed a No position and have now flipped to backing Yes at 73–74¢.

$4,574 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 80800778, $40,307
0x9106...afcb — Outcome 80800778, $17,088 (72% win rate)
0x7c58...a5a1 — Outcome 80800778, $1,564 (94% win rate)
0xd604...cb5f — Outcome 80800778, $1,236 (68% win rate)
0x2586...c893 — Outcome 80800778, $1,134 (84% win rate)
0x2937...ad07 — Outcome 80800778, $762 (86% win rate)
0xb032...6977 — Outcome 80800778, $714
0xc684...2228 — Outcome 80800778, $694 (79% win rate)
0x8aaf...7beb — Outcome 80800778, $500
0x8575...87fe — Outcome 80800778, $312

Related Theses

Brazil dominates, Haiti stays quiet

Covers 5 related markets

Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Resolved2025-2026 FA Cup Winner$11,285 tracked4 signalsSoccerSportsFA Cup

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.