Part of: Tour De France 2026: Polka Dot Jersey

Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,797.

Categories: Sports, Cycling, Tour de France, Professional Cycling

Notable Trades

Serial bettor caught a major move

A highly experienced serial trader bought Yes at 82¢ in a relatively thin market before the price rose to 90%, though the wallet's historical edge is modest against its average winning price.

  • This bettor has 972 resolved positions, an 85% win rate, and $188,000 in lifetime profit.
  • The $1,797 Yes purchase at 82¢ preceded a 51-point one-day price surge to roughly 90¢.
  • The trade was large relative to the market's thin liquidity, adding weight to the directional signal.

$1,797 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x936e...473f Outcome 89792714, $10,065 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 89792714, $3,903
  3. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 89792714, $341 (61% win rate)
  4. 0xa5ce...2fa6 Outcome 89792714, $72
  5. 0xe2d4...a6d1 Outcome 89792714, $70
  6. 0x1c4f...e321 Outcome 89792714, $67
  7. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 89792714, $60
  8. 0x34db...2e01 Outcome 89792714, $50
  9. 0x4629...f3b1 Outcome 89792714, $50
  10. 0x9cef...0f4c Outcome 89792714, $50

Related Theses

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Covers 2 related markets

Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

ResolvedTour De France 2026: Polka Dot Jersey$1,797 tracked1 signalSportsCyclingTour de FranceProfessional Cycling

This market will resolve to the player who wins the Polka Dot Jersey for the 2026 Tour De France. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by UCI rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

29d ago

$1,797 on Yes at 82¢

Related Theses