Part of: Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi
This prediction market covers the Internazionali BNL d'Italia tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Luciano Darderi, scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with settlement expected by May 20, 2026 if a winner is determined within the market rules. PolySpotter is tracking $22,466 in smart money across 4 signals, including recent sharp activity on both Jodar and Darderi.
41 smart money signals detected, totaling $218,312.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
93% winner caught move
Sharp tennis bettor with a 93% win rate and strong cross-market history bought Luciano Darderi at 78% before the market moved to 96%.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $490k lifetime.
- They have a deep cross-market record: 53 events, 66 markets, and $575k traded with the same 93% win rate.
- They bought Luciano Darderi at 78%, and the price has already moved to 96%.
$2,338 on Luciano Darderi | Wallet win rate: 93%
Proven cross-market sharp
A proven serial cross-market bettor with a 78% win rate bought Rafael Jodar amid strong one-sided coordinated flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has won 78% of 505 resolved bets and is up about $87,946 lifetime.
- 11 wallets bought the same side, totaling nearly $49,000 on Rafael Jodar.
- Market activity spiked 25x before the match, suggesting unusually strong attention around this side.
$1,388 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 78%
11-wallet Jodar flow
Surface because this is part of strong one-sided Rafael Jodar flow with 11 wallets and a major pre-event volume spike, despite this wallet's negative lifetime P&L and the price moving against the entry.
- 11 wallets bought Rafael Jodar in the same window, totaling about $49K of one-sided flow.
- This bettor put $13K on Jodar at 65¢ after closing a Darderi position, suggesting a clear flip in view.
- Market volume spiked 25x, but Jodar has since fallen from this entry to 56¢.
$13,000 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial bettor joins cluster
A profitable serial cross-market tennis bettor joined an 11-wallet same-direction move on Rafael Jodar amid a major pre-event volume spike and sharp price volatility.
- This bettor has a strong 223-bet history, winning 65% and earning about $17.5K lifetime profit.
- 11 wallets bought Rafael Jodar in the same window, totaling nearly $49K of one-sided flow.
- The market saw a 25x volume spike and a sharp price move, suggesting a major pre-match repricing.
$5,741 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial trader joins cluster
Profitable high-volume tennis trader joined a 5-wallet one-sided move into Luciano Darderi, with the price moving strongly in their favor after entry.
- This bettor is up $2.36M lifetime across more than 28,000 resolved trades.
- Five wallets bought Luciano Darderi in the same window for $13,858 total.
- They entered at 51¢ and the market has already moved to 62¢, suggesting fast confirmation of the bet.
$1,494 on Luciano Darderi | Wallet win rate: 56%
93% win-rate tennis sharp
Sharp tennis bettor with a 93% historical win rate and strong cross-market record bought Luciano Darderi amid a major volume spike and rapid price move.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $466K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 52 events with the same 93% hit rate.
- The market saw a 13x volume spike and a fast 15-point move, adding momentum to the bet.
$1,440 on Luciano Darderi | Wallet win rate: 93%
Elite sports sharp buys dip
Elite profitable sports trader bought Rafael Jodar after a sharp selloff, with a long cross-market track record and $8.38M lifetime profit despite this being a small add relative to prior activity.
- This bettor has 5,265 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $8.38M lifetime.
- They have traded across 1,585 events with $14.1M in detected cross-market volume, suggesting a serious sports model or workflow.
- Rafael Jodar fell 38 points in 3 minutes, and this buy at 36¢ looks like a dip entry after a major move.
$2,199 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 73%
79% winner buying dip
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 79% historical win rate is buying Rafael Jodar after a sharp price drop, suggesting a potential dip-buying edge despite prior position history.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $146K lifetime across 112 resolved bets.
- They are a heavy serial cross-market trader, active across 99 events with $1.24M total tracked volume.
- They bought Rafael Jodar at 37¢ after a rapid 38-point price drop, suggesting they may see the selloff as overdone.
$1,831 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Darderi into a major pre-match volume spike and rapid price move, creating a credible buy-the-dip signal despite modest size.
- This bettor has 223 resolved trades and is up $18.5K lifetime.
- The market saw a 33x volume spike with Darderi moving 15 points in under two minutes.
- They bought Darderi at 83¢ after the sharp move, signaling confidence in the favorite despite volatility.
$1,700 on Luciano Darderi | Wallet win rate: 65%
Serial sports trader on favorite
Serial cross-market sports trader bought Darderi before a major volume spike and price move, though lifetime P&L is negative so conviction is moderate.
- This wallet has traded 42 events and wins 63% of resolved bets, showing meaningful sports-market experience.
- They bought Darderi at 89¢ before the price moved to 94¢, with the market seeing a 38x volume spike.
- The bet is small relative to liquidity, but the timing lined up with strong one-way momentum.
$1,200 on Luciano Darderi | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x6832...831f — Outcome 19848849, $59,149
- 0xbfe6...fcc9 — Outcome 19848849, $36,899 (69% win rate)
- 0xab82...abe5 — Outcome 19848849, $32,848 (47% win rate)
- 0x0979...8d9b — Outcome 19848849, $30,823 (65% win rate)
- 0x82cb...a4ee — Outcome 19848849, $26,608 (91% win rate)
- 0xb1c2...5db2 — Outcome 19848849, $24,000 (29% win rate)
- 0xc117...de2f — Outcome 19848849, $18,161 (100% win rate)
- 0x479e...91c3 — Outcome 19848849, $12,077 (79% win rate)
- 0xe166...8f14 — Outcome 19848849, $11,513 (100% win rate)
- 0x1ef5...dc05 — Outcome 19848849, $11,224 (87% win rate)
