Part of: Iraq vs. Norway - More Markets
Spread: Norway (-2.5)
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,905.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
Serial trader exited before crash
Experienced cross-market sports trader sold Iraq at 82¢ before it collapsed to 0¢, though it was an exit from an existing position rather than a fresh long.
- This active sports bettor is up $88.7K across 426 resolved markets.
- They sold Iraq at 82¢ before the market moved to 0¢, avoiding the full collapse.
- This was closing an existing Iraq position, so it is more a wallet-to-follow signal than a clean fresh entry.
$3,501 on Norway | Wallet win rate: 66%
5-wallet Iraq surge
A 5-wallet cluster bought $31k of Iraq as a 52x pre-event volume spike pushed the line sharply toward Iraq, with several profitable wallets involved.
- Five wallets bought $31k of Iraq, with entries around 65–71¢ and the market now at 74¢.
- Volume is 52x above normal, and Norway’s cover price has dropped 12 points in the last day.
- Several wallets have long betting histories and positive P&L, including one up $429k lifetime.
$31,009 on Iraq
Sharp funded cluster on Norway
A funded wallet cluster is buying Norway together, including one highly profitable bettor with an 87% historical win rate.
- One bettor in the cluster wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $116k lifetime.
- Six wallets share the same funder, with three buying Norway at 35¢ in the same window.
- Market volume is running 20x above its historical average before kickoff.
$5,167 on Norway
99% win-rate sports sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 99% resolved win rate and strong cross-market track record bought Norway -2.5 despite only a modest stake.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $243K lifetime.
- They have traded across 161 events with a 99% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- Entry at 36¢ implies they see Norway covering by 3+ goals as mispriced.
$1,001 on Norway | Wallet win rate: 98%
91% serial sports trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate over 1,370 resolved markets buying Iraq on the Norway -2.5 spread.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades across 1,370 markets.
- They have traded 163 events and $2.95M through this cross-market pattern.
- Entry at 65¢ backs Iraq to keep Norway from winning by 3+ goals.
$2,944 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 91%
94% sports winner
Sharp sports bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Iraq at 63¢ despite only a modest alert score.
- This bettor has won 34 of 36 resolved bets and is up $8.2K lifetime.
- Their wins came at average 65¢ odds, so the record is strong even after accounting for favorites.
- They bought Iraq at 63¢ on a liquid market, implying confidence Norway will not cover the -2.5 spread.
$3,150 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable whale event sweep
A highly profitable, high-volume sports bettor put over $25k on Iraq +2.5 while also building a $116k cross-market position across the same Norway-Iraq event amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor is up about $520k lifetime across more than 78k resolved bets.
- They are building a broad $116k position across 7 markets tied to the same game.
- This quiet spread market saw a huge pre-event volume spike, with this wallet buying Iraq +2.5 around 63¢.
$25,134 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 53%
Top Holders
- 0xd1c5...cbd0 — Outcome 64052500, $562,394 (94% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 64052500, $102,663 (64% win rate)
- 0x16c7...3931 — Outcome 64052500, $16,505 (53% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — Outcome 64052500, $10,823 (100% win rate)
- 0xcb58...43c2 — Outcome 64052500, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x4aac...c78f — Outcome 64052500, $9,476 (89% win rate)
- 0x6a32...0086 — Outcome 64052500, $7,500 (81% win rate)
- 0xcc2f...a15f — Outcome 64052500, $6,166 (65% win rate)
- 0x1c66...e371 — Outcome 64052500, $5,951 (79% win rate)
- 0xa85b...eb0e — Outcome 64052500, $5,159 (85% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran leadership change unlikely
Covers 4 related markets
