Part of: Iraq vs. Norway - More Markets
Spread: Norway (-2.5)
In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 16 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Iraq". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $71,905.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
Serial trader exited before crash
Experienced cross-market sports trader sold Iraq at 82¢ before it collapsed to 0¢, though it was an exit from an existing position rather than a fresh long.
- This active sports bettor is up $88.7K across 426 resolved markets.
- They sold Iraq at 82¢ before the market moved to 0¢, avoiding the full collapse.
- This was closing an existing Iraq position, so it is more a wallet-to-follow signal than a clean fresh entry.
$3,501 on Norway | Wallet win rate: 68%
5-wallet Iraq surge
A 5-wallet cluster bought $31k of Iraq as a 52x pre-event volume spike pushed the line sharply toward Iraq, with several profitable wallets involved.
- Five wallets bought $31k of Iraq, with entries around 65–71¢ and the market now at 74¢.
- Volume is 52x above normal, and Norway’s cover price has dropped 12 points in the last day.
- Several wallets have long betting histories and positive P&L, including one up $429k lifetime.
$31,009 on Iraq
Sharp funded cluster on Norway
A funded wallet cluster is buying Norway together, including one highly profitable bettor with an 87% historical win rate.
- One bettor in the cluster wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $116k lifetime.
- Six wallets share the same funder, with three buying Norway at 35¢ in the same window.
- Market volume is running 20x above its historical average before kickoff.
$5,167 on Norway
99% win-rate sports sharp
Elite sports bettor with a 99% resolved win rate and strong cross-market track record bought Norway -2.5 despite only a modest stake.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $243K lifetime.
- They have traded across 161 events with a 99% win rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- Entry at 36¢ implies they see Norway covering by 3+ goals as mispriced.
$1,001 on Norway | Wallet win rate: 69%
91% serial sports trader
Surface because this is a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 91% win rate over 1,370 resolved markets buying Iraq on the Norway -2.5 spread.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades across 1,370 markets.
- They have traded 163 events and $2.95M through this cross-market pattern.
- Entry at 65¢ backs Iraq to keep Norway from winning by 3+ goals.
$2,944 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 90%
94% sports winner
Sharp sports bettor with a 94% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Iraq at 63¢ despite only a modest alert score.
- This bettor has won 34 of 36 resolved bets and is up $8.2K lifetime.
- Their wins came at average 65¢ odds, so the record is strong even after accounting for favorites.
- They bought Iraq at 63¢ on a liquid market, implying confidence Norway will not cover the -2.5 spread.
$3,150 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable whale event sweep
A highly profitable, high-volume sports bettor put over $25k on Iraq +2.5 while also building a $116k cross-market position across the same Norway-Iraq event amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor is up about $520k lifetime across more than 78k resolved bets.
- They are building a broad $116k position across 7 markets tied to the same game.
- This quiet spread market saw a huge pre-event volume spike, with this wallet buying Iraq +2.5 around 63¢.
$25,134 on Iraq | Wallet win rate: 55%
Related Theses
Iran leadership changes by year-end
Covers 5 related markets
