What does the Ethereum $800 by December 31, 2026 market predict?

It predicts whether ETH will dip to $800 or below before the end of 2026, based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle low prices.

How does this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute ETH/USDT candle between Nov. 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and Dec. 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET has a final Low price of $800 or lower. If that never happens, it resolves to No.

What is the resolution source for ETH hitting $800?

The resolution source is Binance’s ETH/USDT market, specifically the final Low price on 1-minute candles shown on the Binance ETH/USDT chart.

What are smart money traders doing in this Ethereum crash market?

Recent PolySpotter alerts show high-win wallets buying or backing No, including headlines such as “92% winner buying NO” and “91% winner fading ETH crash.”

When does the Ethereum $800 prediction market end?

If ETH does not hit $800 or lower earlier, the market is scheduled to resolve after the end of 2026, with a listed resolution date of Jan. 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC.

Part of: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Ethereum will trade at or below $800 on any Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle low between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026. It resolves Yes immediately if ETH hits $800 or lower; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline on Jan. 1, 2027. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,011 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing high-win traders buying or backing No.

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $103,044.

Categories: Ethereum, Crypto Prices, Hit Price, Crypto, Yearly

Notable Trades

95% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: despite a weak alert score, this repeat bettor has a 95% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L while buying No at 88¢.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $10.1K lifetime.
They are backing No at 88¢ on a liquid ETH market, suggesting confidence ETH avoids an $800 dip through 2026.
This wallet has been flagged 11 times before, making the trade more notable than the low alert score suggests.

$2,011 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Cross-market ETH crash fade

High-win-rate wallet is expressing a large cross-market thesis against a major ETH crash, with $114k positioned across three related markets despite this single trade being modest.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades, though lifetime profit is roughly flat.
They have put $114k across 3 related ETH markets, all pointing to a broader view on ETH downside risk.
This trade buys No at 83¢, betting ETH does not touch $800 before 2027.

$1,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Cross-market ETH crash fade

High-win-rate wallet is expressing a large cross-market thesis against a major ETH crash, with $114k positioned across three related markets despite this single trade being modest.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades, though lifetime profit is roughly flat.
They have put $114k across 3 related ETH markets, all pointing to a broader view on ETH downside risk.
This trade buys No at 83¢, betting ETH does not touch $800 before 2027.

$1,835 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable ETH crash bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is putting meaningful size into an ETH crash thesis, with $38k positioned across related markets and this trade far larger than recent activity flagged by the detector.

This wallet is up $135k lifetime and is adding a $9.4k Yes bet on an ETH drop to $800.
The bettor has $38k positioned across related ETH dip markets, suggesting a broader crash-risk thesis.
Entry at 17¢ implies they see this as a roughly 6x payout if ETH touches $800 by the end of 2026.

$5,457 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%

Sharp crash-risk buyer

Surfaced because a proven wallet with an 85% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $40K lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes at 20¢, betting ETH will hit $800 before the end of 2026.
The wallet has also positioned across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader downside thesis.

$2,089 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable ETH crash bettor

This wallet is up $135k lifetime and is adding a $9.4k Yes bet on an ETH drop to $800.
The bettor has $38k positioned across related ETH dip markets, suggesting a broader crash-risk thesis.
Entry at 17¢ implies they see this as a roughly 6x payout if ETH touches $800 by the end of 2026.

$9,435 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%

Cross-market ETH dip bettor

A single wallet is making a meaningful cross-market ETH downside bet, with this $7.4k buy large relative to recent activity despite no strong win-rate edge.

This wallet has put $32.6k across two related ETH dip markets, suggesting a broader downside thesis.
This $7.4k buy was about 6x recent market volume at the time of the alert.
Entry at 20¢ implies they see a potential 5x payout if ETH touches $800 by the deadline.

$7,406 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 41%

91% winner, cross-market thesis

A 91% historical winner with positive P&L is adding a $7.5k No bet as part of a larger $100k cross-market ETH thesis.

This bettor has won 91% of resolved trades and is positive lifetime.
They have over $100k positioned across 3 related ETH markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
This $7.5k buy says they see an ETH dip to $800 as unlikely at an 80¢ entry.

$7,545 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

97% winner fading ETH crash

A highly profitable 97% win-rate wallet made a $26k No bet that dwarfs recent volume on a relatively quiet ETH crash market.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up $285k lifetime.
They put $26k on No, about 5.7x the market’s recent 24h volume.
Buying at 79¢ implies they see the ETH-to-$800 scenario as overpriced.

$26,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

92% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate and $77.6k profit bought $20.7k of No while also positioning across related ETH dip markets.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $77.6k lifetime.
They put $20.7k on No here, with the larger buy at 77¢ now trading around 82¢.
They have $58.4k positioned across 3 related ETH dip markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$20,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%