Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will fall to $55,000 or lower at any point before the end of December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle records a low at or below $55,000 during the market window; otherwise it resolves No. The market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, and traders use it to price the odds of a major BTC pullback by year-end 2026.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,201.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
11-wallet sharp cluster
An 11-wallet funded cluster with a 98% win-rate wallet is buying No across related BTC dip markets, suggesting coordinated conviction from a historically sharp trader group.
- This wallet wins 98% of resolved bets, with 51 wins in 52 and $52k profit.
- 11 wallets funded by the same source have been flagged on this setup, pointing to coordinated conviction.
- They bought No at 45¢ while this market has fallen 10.5 points in a week, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone.
$1,709 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
11-wallet sharp cluster
An 11-wallet linked cluster with a 98% win-rate wallet is buying No on a liquid BTC dip market, suggesting coordinated conviction from a historically strong trader group.
- This wallet wins 98% of resolved bets at 51W/1L, a rare track record worth following.
- 11 linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $3.5k into this market, showing coordinated conviction.
- They bought No at 44¢ while the market now prices it around 44-43¢ implied, backing the view that BTC stays above $55k through 2026.
$1,671 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
11-wallet sharp cluster
A wallet from an 11-wallet linked cluster with a 98% win rate is buying No in a liquid Bitcoin threshold market after a recent move lower, making this coordinated cross-market positioning worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.
- This wallet wins 98% of its resolved bets, with 51 wins in 52 and $52k profit.
- 11 linked wallets funded by the same source have been active across this event, pointing to coordinated conviction.
- They bought No at 44¢ while the market has dropped 8.5 points in a week, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone.
$1,847 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
57-0 crypto specialist
A wallet with a flawless 57-for-57 record is making a fresh cross-market Bitcoin thesis bet by buying No at 44¢ in a liquid market that has recently moved lower.
- This bettor has won 57 of 57 resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime
- They have put $12.6k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 44¢ while this market has fallen 9.5 points in a week, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone
$1,759 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
57-0 crypto specialist
A proven profitable wallet with a perfect 57-for-57 record is building a repeat cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 43¢, a notable contrarian entry versus current Yes-heavy pricing.
- This bettor is 57 for 57 on resolved markets and up $33k lifetime
- They have bet $12.6k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, pointing to a broader event thesis
- Bought No at 43¢ while the market prices Yes at 57%, implying they see the dip as less likely than the crowd does
$1,719 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
90% winner re-entering No
A high-win-rate wallet with a strong multi-market Bitcoin thesis reopened a No position after previously closing one, suggesting renewed conviction rather than routine whale flow.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $17.4k overall
- They spread nearly $8.6k across 4 related Bitcoin markets with a perfect record in this event so far
- They re-entered No at 42¢, showing fresh conviction even after previously closing an earlier position
$1,026 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% winner joins No cluster
Three wallets aligned on No, including one bettor with a 90% win rate across 51 resolved markets, adding coordinated flow to a large crypto event market after a notable weekly price move.
- One of the wallets wins 90% of its bets over 51 resolved markets and is profitable overall
- Three wallets all took the same No side within minutes, for about $4.5k total
- They entered around 39-40¢ for No, while this market has moved 11.5 points over the last week
$4,472 on No
Top Holders
- 0xcc50...4c82 — No, $107,535 (40% win rate)
- 0xc9dc...631e — Yes, $86,517
- 0x715d...b09b — Yes, $76,320
- 0x9a1f...c925 — Yes, $61,060
- 0xf705...3ca7 — No, $42,217 (51% win rate)
- 0xda5b...8cce — Yes, $40,636
- 0x2e4d...f703 — No, $33,562
- 0x8059...d5bd — Yes, $30,000
- 0x67ae...0f0a — No, $27,241 (100% win rate)
- 0x5226...8554 — No, $24,405
