Market

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

0 smart money signals detected.

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $115,049
  2. 0xf720...4599 Yes, $32,032 (59% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $30,059 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x9612...205a Yes, $9,665
  5. 0x5ba8...2bdf Yes, $4,160
  6. 0xa49b...7054 Yes, $3,747 (72% win rate)
  7. 0xc04a...8046 Yes, $3,268
  8. 0x0325...16e7 Yes, $2,285
  9. 0x9276...37a3 Yes, $2,235
  10. 0x0380...073d Yes, $2,027 (56% win rate)

Market

0 signals
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
100¢
97¢
95¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction
No signals found for this market.