Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
This Polymarket asks whether J.D. Vance will attend the next official diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran before June 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if Vance is physically present at that qualifying US-Iran meeting; otherwise it resolves No. Recent smart money activity appears bearish on attendance, with whale alerts concentrated on the No side.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,456.
Categories: Politics, Vance, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Trump, Kushner, Iran Ceasefire, rubio, Witkoff
Notable Trades
86% win-rate event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is taking a fresh bearish view here by selling Yes at 61¢, which converts to buying No at 39¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $419k lifetime
- They trade across 56 related markets and 30 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Selling Yes at 61¢ is equivalent to buying No at 39¢, a relatively cheap entry versus current Yes odds near 63%
$2,456 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
New whale buying No
A 9-day-old repeat wallet put $10k into No during a major volume spike, signaling strong fresh conviction on a politically relevant market.
- A 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and put $10,000 into No here
- This was fresh conviction during a 96x volume spike, suggesting the bettor was reacting to new information
- They bought No at 62¢ to 74¢, far above the current 22¢ price, so the move badly missed the mark but shows high conviction
$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale betting No
A 9-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and just put $13k into this geopolitics market during a 43x volume spike, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited track record.
- A 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and just put $13k into this market
- Most of the size hit No at 62¢ and 74¢, a strong bet that current 46¢ No may still be too cheap
- The market saw a 43x volume spike, and this trader was part of the burst of money into a news-sensitive politics market
$13,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet pressing NO
A 9-day-old wallet has already repeatedly placed large bets and just put another $3,000 into No on a politically relevant market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited history.
- A 9-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts and put $15.6k into flagged trades
- This is a fresh $3,000 buy on No at 32¢ in a politics market with solid volume, showing clear conviction
- The price has already moved from their 32¢ entry to 28¢, so the trade is in the money early
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x20eb...bc89 — No, $11,951 (100% win rate)
- 0xd46b...5dab — No, $7,694 (52% win rate)
- 0xbb8e...b243 — Yes, $6,428 (69% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $5,702 (43% win rate)
- 0x9b49...ab21 — No, $5,630 (35% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $3,570 (57% win rate)
- 0x2f7b...8ed8 — Yes, $3,474 (77% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $3,411 (86% win rate)
- 0x8bd5...8d10 — No, $3,059
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $2,469 (88% win rate)
