What is the Anthropic IPO prediction market?

It is a Polymarket market on whether Anthropic will complete an IPO and have its shares listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange by October 31, 2026.

What happens if Anthropic is acquired before its IPO?

If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already publicly traded, the market immediately resolves No under the listed rules.

When does the Anthropic IPO market resolve?

The outcome is determined based on the October 31, 2026 deadline, with the market scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.

Where can I track Anthropic IPO odds and smart money?

You can follow the live Yes and No prices on Polymarket and review smart money activity, including tracked positions and alerts, on the market page.

Part of: Anthropic IPO by __?

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Q: What would make the Anthropic IPO market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026.

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic shares will be listed on a public securities exchange and begin trading by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if that IPO milestone occurs and No otherwise, including if Anthropic is acquired by an already-public company; $9,152 in smart money is currently tracked.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $50,601.

Categories: IPOs, Dario, Finance, IPO, Anthropic IPO, Anthropic

Notable Trades

New whale scaling into Yes

A three-day-old repeat bettor has committed roughly $7,500 to Yes in a relatively quiet market, creating a notable but unproven conviction signal.

This three-day-old wallet has flagged roughly $14,225 across four large bets, including $7,475 on Yes here.
The position represents a substantial share of recent market activity, while Yes has risen 23% over the past week.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so this is a conviction signal rather than proven sharp-bettor evidence.

$9,152 on Yes

Three-wallet Yes accumulation

Three wallets added $13.5K to Yes, including a repeat new-wallet bettor and a highly profitable large trader, while the market rose 12% in a day.

Three wallets added $13,498 to Yes, representing 52% of the 24-hour volume and pushing odds from roughly 62% to 74%.
A 10-day-old wallet has repeated large bets 11 times, totaling $35,572 in flagged activity.
One participant is up $978K lifetime across more than $32M invested, while the others are adding to existing Yes positions.

$13,498 on Yes

New whale scaling into Yes

A three-day-old repeat bettor has committed roughly $7,500 to Yes in a relatively quiet market, creating a notable but unproven conviction signal.

This three-day-old wallet has flagged roughly $14,225 across four large bets, including $7,475 on Yes here.
The position represents a substantial share of recent market activity, while Yes has risen 23% over the past week.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so this is a conviction signal rather than proven sharp-bettor evidence.

$7,797 on Yes

Profitable serial trader buys No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong 71-bet record is taking a fresh $1,399 position on No at near-market price.

This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $92,578 across 71 bets.
The wallet has traded across 27 events and 39 markets, suggesting broad experience rather than a one-off wager.
A fresh $1,399 buy on No at 35¢ implies they see meaningful downside to Anthropic listing by the deadline.

$1,399 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with 904 resolved positions and a 77% win rate is making a fresh $1,200 bet on No at 57%, supported by a strong long-term edge and serial cross-market activity.

This bettor has won 77% of 904 resolved trades and earned $473,628 in P&L.
The $1,200 No position is a large bet relative to the market's recent activity, signaling meaningful conviction.
The wallet trades across 751 markets and 598 events, suggesting broad, repeated experience rather than a one-off wager.

$2,594 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

New whale scaling into Yes

A three-day-old repeat bettor has committed roughly $7,500 to Yes in a relatively quiet market, creating a notable but unproven conviction signal.

This three-day-old wallet has flagged roughly $14,225 across four large bets, including $7,475 on Yes here.
The position represents a substantial share of recent market activity, while Yes has risen 23% over the past week.
There is no resolved-position track record yet, so this is a conviction signal rather than proven sharp-bettor evidence.

$7,475 on Yes

94% winner scaling into Yes

A highly experienced 94%-win-rate wallet is adding roughly $3,500 to Yes while already holding a sizable position, alongside bullish positioning across three related markets.

This bettor has won 94% of 412 resolved trades and is adding about $3,500 to Yes at 65–66¢.
The wallet already has $5,343 invested in Yes, signaling increased conviction rather than a new exploratory position.
Yes has risen 23% in one day, corroborating the trader’s bullish positioning across three related markets.

$4,810 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with 904 resolved positions and a 77% win rate is making a fresh $1,200 bet on No at 57%, supported by a strong long-term edge and serial cross-market activity.

This bettor has won 77% of 904 resolved trades and earned $473,628 in P&L.
The $1,200 No position is a large bet relative to the market's recent activity, signaling meaningful conviction.
The wallet trades across 751 markets and 598 events, suggesting broad, repeated experience rather than a one-off wager.

$1,600 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and $175,887 profit is taking a fresh No position, reinforced by serial cross-market activity.

This bettor has won 82% of 829 resolved trades and earned $175,887 in profit.
The wallet has traded across 25 events and 32 markets, suggesting a repeatable research-driven process rather than a one-off bet.
Bought No at 60¢ while the market priced No near 62%, targeting Anthropic not going public by the deadline.

$1,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Proven serial bettor buys No

A highly experienced bettor with 904 resolved positions and a 77% win rate is making a fresh $1,200 bet on No at 57%, supported by a strong long-term edge and serial cross-market activity.

This bettor has won 77% of 904 resolved trades and earned $473,628 in P&L.
The $1,200 No position is a large bet relative to the market's recent activity, signaling meaningful conviction.
The wallet trades across 751 markets and 598 events, suggesting broad, repeated experience rather than a one-off wager.

$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%