Part of: Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5)
This Polymarket market covers the map handicap for the Counter-Strike 2 semifinal between Team Falcons and magic in the PGL Astana Playoffs. Team Falcons needs to win by at least 2 maps for the “Team Falcons” side to resolve Yes; otherwise, “magic” wins on the +1.5 handicap. The market is set to resolve on May 16, 2026, with $17,480 in tracked smart money and 1 recent smart money signal.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between magic and Team Falcons in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 16 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons wins 2 or more maps than magic in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "magic". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,945.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
6-day wallet, 6-0 record
A 6-day-old wallet with a perfect 6-0 resolved record and +$2,455 P&L is buying Team Falcons at 64¢, suggesting early sharp esports conviction despite a modest $1k size.
- This new bettor is 6-for-6 on resolved trades and is up $2,455 so far.
- They bought Team Falcons at 64¢, adding a fresh $1,000 position in a liquid esports market.
- Their average winning entry was 43¢, suggesting they have already hit several non-obvious bets.
$1,000 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 100%
Three serial bettors align
Three experienced cross-market bettors bought $17.5k of Team Falcons during a major pre-event volume spike, with two wallets showing meaningful lifetime profit.
- Three experienced bettors put $17.5k on Team Falcons within five minutes.
- Two wallets are profitable long-term, including one up $356k across 1,945 resolved bets.
- Market volume spiked 235x versus its historical average, and the cluster bought near the current 62–63¢ price.
$17,480 on Team Falcons
94% serial sports sharp
Surfaced because this is a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 94% resolved win rate buying Team Falcons at 61¢.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up about $220K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 98 events and 615 markets.
- Entry at 61¢ suggests they see Team Falcons as meaningfully underpriced.
$1,220 on Team Falcons | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial bettor
Borderline but worth surfacing because a highly experienced, profitable cross-market bettor put $5.2k on magic in a relatively quiet handicap market.
- This bettor has a long track record: 886 resolved bets and $325k in lifetime profit.
- They put $5.2k on magic, larger than the market’s flagged recent volume.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 149 events, suggesting this is part of a broader betting process.
$5,246 on magic | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0x67bb...b6ef — Team Falcons, $30,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x3993...cded — magic, $27,268 (70% win rate)
- 0x183f...85e3 — magic, $19,262 (58% win rate)
- 0xd3b0...329e — Team Falcons, $17,400 (61% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Team Falcons, $17,000 (67% win rate)
- 0x8688...9d8c — magic, $10,026 (52% win rate)
- 0x5faf...1183 — magic, $10,000 (33% win rate)
- 0x3bae...885a — Team Falcons, $9,290 (55% win rate)
- 0x4b59...3aa6 — magic, $7,500 (62% win rate)
- 0xb7f5...c669 — Team Falcons, $7,351 (48% win rate)
