Part of: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
This prediction market covers the August 20 MLB game between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. It resolves to the winning team; a cancellation without a makeup game or a tie results in a 50-50 resolution. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,700 in smart-money activity and one signal, with recent activity involving both the Yankees and Orioles.
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $148,068.
Categories: Sports, Games, MLB, baseball
Notable Trades
Serial sharp backing Yankees
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with an 83% win rate bought the Yankees before a 32-point daily price surge amid an extreme volume spike.
- This bettor has won 83% of 1,040 resolved bets and earned about $650,000 in profit.
- The $1,700 Yankees buy at 82¢ preceded a rise to 84¢ and a 32.6x historical volume spike.
- The market is liquid with a narrow 1¢ spread, making this a fresh, trackable position rather than a thin-market anomaly.
$1,700 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 83%
Serial winner scaling into Yankees
A highly experienced serial trader with an 89% win rate bought the Yankees at 64¢ while already holding a large position, ahead of a 20-point price rise and major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 89% of 167 resolved trades across 82 events and is up $34,773.
- They added $7,427 at 64¢ while already holding $52,700 in Yankees exposure, signaling increased conviction.
- The Yankees price subsequently jumped 20 points to 80% alongside a 26.9x volume spike.
$18,992 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 89%
Serial bettor ahead of Yankees surge
A serial cross-market bettor with 326 resolved trades bought the Yankees at 64¢ before a 20-point price jump, though the existing position makes this less clearly fresh conviction.
- This bettor has won 75% of 326 resolved trades and is up $61,060 lifetime.
- The Yankees purchase at 64¢ preceded a 20-point move to 80%, alongside a 26.9x volume spike.
- The wallet was already holding Yankees shares at the same average entry, so this appears to be an addition rather than a fresh position.
$3,600 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial winner scaling into Yankees
A highly experienced serial trader with an 89% win rate bought the Yankees at 64¢ while already holding a large position, ahead of a 20-point price rise and major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 89% of 167 resolved trades across 82 events and is up $34,773.
- They added $7,427 at 64¢ while already holding $52,700 in Yankees exposure, signaling increased conviction.
- The Yankees price subsequently jumped 20 points to 80% alongside a 26.9x volume spike.
$7,427 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 89%
Trader behind Yankees price surge
A large pre-event volume spike coincided with a 20-point Yankees price jump, though the trader's broad 56% record provides only modest evidence of edge.
- The Yankees moved from 74¢ to 80¢ after this $1,148 purchase, alongside a 26.9x surge in market activity.
- This highly experienced trader has 89,507 resolved bets and is up $8.1 million overall.
- The 56% win rate is respectable but does not independently prove a strong edge at this entry price.
$1,148 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 56%
Repeat new wallet scaling into Yankees
A repeatedly active 8-day-old wallet is scaling into the Yankees around 48¢ amid a major volume surge, though its track record is still too limited to establish proven skill.
- An 8-day-old wallet has triggered five large-bet alerts, with $28,996 flagged across seven positions.
- It added $12,440 to the Yankees near 48¢ while the market moved to 52%, supporting the direction of the trade.
- The market saw a 28.1x historical volume spike, although the wallet’s 100% win rate is based on only one resolved bet.
$12,440 on New York Yankees | Wallet win rate: 100%
93% winner leads Orioles accumulation
Three bettors added $12.8K to Baltimore, including a proven 93% winner buying at 49 cents, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite existing positions.
- A bettor with a 93% win rate across 46 resolved positions is adding to Baltimore at 49¢.
- Three wallets added $12,757 to Baltimore within minutes, all reinforcing existing positions.
- The buying coincided with a 73.7x volume spike, while Baltimore remains near even money at 48%.
$12,757 on Baltimore Orioles
93% win-rate bettor adds to Orioles
A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and strong historical edge is adding $4,044 to Baltimore at 49¢.
- This bettor has won 93% of 46 resolved positions and is up $102,928.
- They are adding $4,044 to an existing Baltimore position at 49¢, signaling continued conviction.
- The 42-event cross-market track record makes this more than a one-off sports wager.
$4,044 on Baltimore Orioles | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable bettor scales into Orioles
A profitable, experienced sports bettor is adding another $20,272 to an existing Orioles position at near-even odds.
- This bettor has won 56% of 491 resolved trades and is up $1.12 million.
- They added $20,272 to an existing Orioles position, bringing their total investment to over $61,000.
- The 49¢ entry price offers meaningful upside if this experienced bettor’s Orioles conviction is correct.
$6,791 on Baltimore Orioles | Wallet win rate: 57%
94% winner adds to Orioles
A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate and $1.09M in profits is adding $20K to an Orioles position at 49%.
- This bettor has won 164 of 175 resolved positions, with $1.09M in reported profits.
- They added $20,035 to Baltimore at 49%, reinforcing an existing $40,888 position rather than taking a routine profit.
- The wallet has traded across 168 events and 184 markets, showing a broad, repeatable track record rather than a one-off bet.
$38,863 on Baltimore Orioles | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x2c33...0563 — Outcome 13364488, $296,557 (60% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 13364488, $161,721 (65% win rate)
- 0xa084...bb99 — Outcome 13364488, $120,613 (94% win rate)
- 0xc807...c12b — Outcome 13364488, $100,000 (68% win rate)
- 0x59f4...c1f1 — Outcome 13364488, $55,520 (57% win rate)
- 0xf68a...5b1b — Outcome 13364488, $30,000 (53% win rate)
- 0xd0fd...a7da — Outcome 13364488, $20,286 (78% win rate)
- 0xb3cf...0ebd — Outcome 13364488, $16,384 (81% win rate)
- 0x32b4...8b21 — Outcome 13364488, $8,663 (57% win rate)
- 0x684b...8409 — Outcome 13364488, $6,762 (92% win rate)
Related Theses
Low-scoring Valkyries keep it close
Covers 3 related markets
