Part of: France vs. Sweden - More Markets

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $292,758.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Sharp cluster backs underdog

Eight wallets put $111k behind Sweden, including a highly profitable 89% winner with $2.3M lifetime profit, though the market has since moved against them.

  • A bettor who wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $2.3M lifetime joined this Sweden position.
  • Eight wallets put $111k on Sweden or against France in the same window.
  • Sweden is now around 6¢, much cheaper than the cluster’s roughly 15¢ entry.

$111,813 on Sweden

Three-wallet Sweden contrarian cluster

Three wallets are taking the same contrarian Sweden position, including a large profitable bettor and related cross-market positioning across the event.

  • Three wallets put $25.3k on the Sweden side despite France being a heavy favorite.
  • The largest bettor in the group is up $466k lifetime across 247 resolved markets.
  • The same flow spans 8 related event markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$25,305 on Sweden

93% winner backing favorite

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying France despite the market already being highly liquid and priced as a favorite.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $23.4K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 25 events with $553K in tracked cross-market volume.
  • Buying France at 89¢ suggests they still see value in the heavy favorite.

$2,225 on France | Wallet win rate: 93%

97% win-rate bettor

A high-hit-rate sports bettor with 133 wins in 137 resolved positions bought France at 89¢, though the bet is modest relative to this very liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 133 of 137 resolved positions, a 97% hit rate.
  • They are buying France at 89¢ in a major, highly liquid sports market.
  • The stake is modest at $2.8k, but the wallet’s track record makes the trade worth watching.

$2,835 on France | Wallet win rate: 97%

99% winner backs favorite

Elite 99% lifetime winner with a large profitable sample bought France despite a very liquid market, supported by a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $244K lifetime.
  • They have traded 251 related events with the same 99% hit rate, making the wallet itself the main signal.
  • A 36x pre-event volume spike adds momentum behind the France side.

$3,950 on France | Wallet win rate: 99%

91% sports bettor

Surface: the bettor has a strong 10-of-11 resolved track record at non-trivial average odds, though the negative reported P&L and very liquid market make this a moderate-confidence copy signal.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved positions, with past wins coming around 51¢ on average.
  • They are backing the heavy favorite at 89¢ with a $2,950 buy on a highly liquid market.
  • Market activity is elevated, with volume running 16.8x above its historical average.

$2,950 on France | Wallet win rate: 86%

463-win sharp on favorite

Surfaced because a highly profitable sharp wallet with a 463-2 resolved record bought France despite an already efficient, liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 463 of 465 resolved trades and is up $282k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with over $1.0M deployed across 371 events.
  • Entry at 89¢ suggests a high-conviction favorite bet, with room only up to 95¢.

$1,113 on France | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale on favorite

A brand-new wallet put $32k on France amid a major pre-event volume spike, suggesting high-conviction positioning before the match.

  • A wallet less than 2 hours old made a $32k bet on France to advance.
  • Market activity is surging, with volume running 40x above its historical average.
  • Buying at 89¢ means this bettor is risking big capital for a relatively small payout, signaling strong confidence.

$32,000 on France | Wallet win rate: 100%

93% winner backing favorite

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 93% record and positive lifetime P&L is buying France despite the market being liquid and near favorite pricing.

  • This bettor has won 27 of 29 resolved trades and is up $1,983 lifetime.
  • They are backing France at 89¢, adding conviction to the heavy favorite in a liquid market.
  • Their average winning bet was around 61¢, so this track record is not just from buying huge favorites.

$1,800 on France | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp serial sports bettor with an 86% record made a $67k France buy amid a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 133 bets and is profitable lifetime.
  • They put $67k on France at 89¢, a large concentrated position even in a liquid market.
  • This wallet has traded across 32 events, and this market just saw a 56x volume spike versus its usual pace.

$66,999 on France | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0x03e8...1697 Outcome 28585339, $459,459 (58% win rate)
  2. 0x7e5e...7315 Outcome 28585339, $186,859 (54% win rate)
  3. 0x087d...b872 Outcome 28585339, $95,991 (66% win rate)
  4. 0xf28e...cab2 Outcome 28585339, $66,932 (89% win rate)
  5. 0xa66c...cd67 Outcome 28585339, $59,626 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x23c8...f293 Outcome 28585339, $50,298 (44% win rate)
  7. 0xfe1c...436c Outcome 28585339, $42,857 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x224a...a3d5 Outcome 28585339, $42,341 (62% win rate)
  9. 0x62ca...1760 Outcome 28585339, $41,722 (95% win rate)
  10. 0xab3e...de25 Outcome 28585339, $38,116 (50% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 4 related markets

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

ResolvedFrance vs. Sweden - More Markets$292,758 tracked18 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "France" if France is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "Sweden" if Sweden is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the game is canceled entirely and no team advances from this match, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “France
102¢
73¢
45¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$111,813 on Sweden at 15¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$25,305 on Sweden at 13¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$2,225 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$2,835 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$3,950 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$2,950 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$1,113 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$32,000 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$1,800 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$66,999 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$3,600 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$6,033 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$2,777 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$9,000 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

1d ago

$1,190 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

2d ago

$3,000 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

2d ago

$7,150 on France at 89¢

France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance

2d ago

$9,017 on France at 89¢

Related Theses