Part of: Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,471.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, Premier League, EPL
Notable Trades
Sharp draw buyers
Surfaced because multiple proven cross-market bettors, including two profitable wallets with roughly 79-80% historical win rates, bought the draw side during a major pre-event volume spike despite volatile odds.
- Two profitable bettors on this side win about 79-80% of their resolved trades and are up a combined $86k lifetime.
- Four wallets put $10.1k toward the draw, including one No sell that is equivalent to buying Yes.
- Volume is 58x above the market’s historical average, though the draw price has since fallen sharply to 16¢.
$10,081 on Yes
80% winner exited before collapse
A proven 80% winner exited Draw at 73¢ before a major move to No, with one-sided market flow and a sharp price collapse corroborating the direction, though this was an exit from an existing Yes position.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $83K lifetime.
- They sold Draw at 73¢ before it fell to 16¢, matching a strong move toward No.
- Three wallets put $19K on No, alongside a 58x volume spike.
$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial sports trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $3.8M lifetime P&L is buying the draw while also positioning across related match markets.
- This bettor is up $3.8M lifetime across 15,555 resolved trades.
- They regularly trade across related markets, with activity in 410 events and 633 markets.
- They have $10.7k positioned across 3 markets tied to this match, suggesting a broader view.
$1,403 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial sports sharp
A highly profitable sports bettor with a 75% record across 3,067 resolved bets bought No on the draw market, supported by a long serial cross-market history.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up $1.59M lifetime.
- They have traded across 107 events and 131 markets, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- Entry at 85¢ on No implies a low-risk draw fade from a proven wallet.
$1,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial sports trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market sports trader is adding a No position on the draw market, though the individual bet is modest relative to liquidity.
- This bettor has won 64% of 15,555 resolved trades and is up $3.8M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.5M deployed across 408 events.
- They bought No at 85¢, betting the match is unlikely to end in a draw.
$1,874 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable linked sports cluster
Three wallets, including a highly profitable serial sports trader, coordinated $12.3k on No amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- A bettor up $3.8M lifetime is part of this cluster buying the same side.
- Three wallets put $12.3k on No, making up most of this market’s 24h volume.
- Volume spiked over 2,000x versus the historical average ahead of the match.
$12,335 on No
Top Holders
- 0xfde6...7ed6 — Outcome 42366385, $35,000 (67% win rate)
- 0xcd65...ee96 — Outcome 42366385, $26,316 (93% win rate)
- 0xeb73...53b0 — Outcome 42366385, $15,716 (79% win rate)
- 0x046b...340d — Outcome 42366385, $10,772 (79% win rate)
- 0x2005...75ea — Outcome 42366385, $6,270 (56% win rate)
- 0xec92...6b59 — Outcome 42366385, $5,555 (84% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 10792516, $5,054
- 0x2e5a...0122 — Outcome 42366385, $4,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 42366385, $3,719 (69% win rate)
- 0xf641...7b6f — Outcome 42366385, $3,304 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Aston Villa beats Liverpool
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Wolfsburg will not win
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Raducanu beats Parry
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