Part of: World Cup Winner
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $488,452.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp sports bettor buying France
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% record and strong edge bought $35k of France to win the 2026 World Cup at 16¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $170k lifetime.
- They put $35k on France at 16¢, a large fresh position from a proven wallet.
- Entry at 16¢ implies a roughly 6x payout if France wins.
$5,024 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp bettor backing France
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is making a $10k Yes bet while building a cross-market World Cup thesis.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $14.6k lifetime.
- They bought $10k of France Yes at 19¢, implying a high-upside World Cup position.
- This is part of a broader 3-market World Cup thesis totaling $13k.
$9,538 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
New whale fading France
A young repeat whale is fading France as part of a broader six-figure World Cup positioning pattern, despite limited proven track record.
- This 21-day-old wallet has triggered 35 large-bet alerts totaling about $299k.
- The bettor has around $165k spread across 4 World Cup winner markets, suggesting a broader pricing thesis.
- This trade buys No at 71¢ after France’s price rose 9 points over the past week.
$12,209 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New whale fading France
A young repeat whale is fading France as part of a broader six-figure World Cup positioning pattern, despite limited proven track record.
- This 21-day-old wallet has triggered 35 large-bet alerts totaling about $299k.
- The bettor has around $165k spread across 4 World Cup winner markets, suggesting a broader pricing thesis.
- This trade buys No at 71¢ after France’s price rose 9 points over the past week.
$9,420 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
93% winner backs France
Sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought France Yes at 33¢ despite this being a highly liquid market.
- This bettor has won 27 of 29 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
- They bought France at 33¢, implying they see meaningful upside from current odds.
- France has already moved up 14.5 points this week, and this sharp wallet is joining the momentum.
$2,927 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
New whale fading France
A young repeat whale is fading France as part of a broader six-figure World Cup positioning pattern, despite limited proven track record.
- This 21-day-old wallet has triggered 35 large-bet alerts totaling about $299k.
- The bettor has around $165k spread across 4 World Cup winner markets, suggesting a broader pricing thesis.
- This trade buys No at 71¢ after France’s price rose 9 points over the past week.
$3,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
New repeat soccer whale
A new repeat large-bet wallet is building a sizeable World Cup thesis, putting $20.8k on France and $35k across four related markets despite limited resolved history.
- This 27-day-old wallet has triggered 11 large-bet alerts, with about $80k total flagged.
- They bought $20.8k of France Yes and have $35k across 4 related World Cup markets.
- Entry around 22¢ is already slightly in the money versus the current 23¢ price.
$38,481 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
91% winner fading France
Sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate is selling France Yes, equivalent to buying No at 72¢.
- This bettor has won 63 of 69 resolved positions and is up about $2.2k lifetime.
- They are fading France after a recent move up, selling Yes at 28¢ despite the market rising 8.5% this week.
- Copying means buying No at 72¢, backing the view that France will not win the 2026 World Cup.
$1,351 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Sharp profitable sports bettor with a 76% resolved win rate and $907k lifetime profit bought France Yes at 17%, despite the trade being small in a very liquid market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $907k lifetime.
- They have traded across 44 events with over $2.1M in cross-market volume.
- Entry at 17¢ implies they see France as underpriced for 2026.
$7,369 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
80% winner backs France
Proven profitable cross-market bettor with an 80% win rate and $628k lifetime profit bought France Yes at 20¢ despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $628k lifetime.
- They are a serious cross-market trader, active across 843 markets with $2.26M in tracked volume.
- Entry at 20¢ implies a 5x payout if France wins the 2026 World Cup.
$1,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 32270411, $52,325,995
- 0x9468...5d4b — Outcome 10823360, $3,395,500 (100% win rate)
- 0x85f0...3f67 — Outcome 10823360, $2,465,265 (99% win rate)
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — Outcome 10823360, $1,429,819 (94% win rate)
- 0xa6c1...b6c9 — Outcome 10823360, $1,021,525
- 0x6adc...beba — Outcome 10823360, $1,009,822 (32% win rate)
- 0xe0ac...76ff — Outcome 10823360, $862,799 (94% win rate)
- 0x8372...5223 — Outcome 10823360, $694,546 (83% win rate)
- 0x78c6...4710 — Outcome 10823360, $600,003 (79% win rate)
- 0xc31d...4ebe — Outcome 10823360, $521,758 (52% win rate)
Related Theses
Favorites advance, Spain Netherlands miss
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Spain, France or Germany wins
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France wins 2026 World Cup
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Spain wins by multiple goals
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Palmeiras will not win
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Cruzeiro-Flamengo stays under 2.5 goals
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PSG wins 2026 Champions League
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