Part of: Paraguay vs. France - More Markets

Spread: France (-2.5)

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "France" if France win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Paraguay". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,882.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Profitable serial sports trader

Moderately interesting because a highly active, profitable sports trader is taking France -2.5 amid a large pre-game volume spike, though the individual bet is modest relative to liquidity.

This bettor has a long track record: 1,032 resolved trades and $140K in lifetime profit.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 145 events with nearly $393K flagged in similar activity.
Market volume is running 21x above its historical pace ahead of kickoff.

$1,268 on France | Wallet win rate: 55%

90% winner backs favorite spread

Sharp sports bettor with a 90% win rate and strong lifetime profit bought France -2.5 at 36¢.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $37K lifetime.
They have beaten market-implied odds by a wide margin across 109 resolved positions.
Entry at 36¢ implies they see France -2.5 as a strong plus-money spot.

$1,405 on France | Wallet win rate: 90%

94% win-rate sports sharp

Sharp sports bettor with a 94% win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying France -2.5 despite the market sitting near 36%.

This bettor wins 94% of resolved positions and is up $76k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 54 events with the same 94% hit rate.
They bought France -2.5, including one fill at the current 36¢ price.

$2,117 on France | Wallet win rate: 91%

New profitable sports whale

A 21-hour-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early $47.9k profit is buying Paraguay on the France -2.5 spread amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This brand-new wallet is already up $47,926 after deploying $448,564 across early positions.
The bettor has been flagged 26 times for large new-wallet bets totaling $233,533.
Market volume spiked over 1,300x versus its historical pace before this World Cup spread bet.

$5,850 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Sharp profitable sports bettor with a 75% record and extensive cross-market history bought $41.8k of France -2.5 amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $254k lifetime.
They put $41.8k on France -2.5 at 35¢, a concentrated position on a World Cup spread.
This wallet has traded 112 related events with a 75% record, and this market just saw a large pre-event volume spike.

$41,788 on France | Wallet win rate: 60%

New profitable sports whale

A 20-hour-old wallet with strong early profit is repeatedly placing large Paraguay spread bets amid a huge pre-event volume spike.

This 20-hour-old wallet has already made 23 flagged large bets totaling $222k.
The bettor is up about $48k early and put another $15k on Paraguay to cover the spread.
Market volume is surging 863x above its historical pace before kickoff.

$14,980 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Profitable serial sports bettor with $2.6M lifetime P&L is buying Paraguay on the France -2.5 spread, with the trade large relative to recent market activity.

This bettor has a long track record: 63% wins across 5,747 resolved bets and $2.6M in lifetime profit.
They have traded across 954 markets with over $13.3M total volume, suggesting a serious repeat bettor rather than a one-off whale.
The $7.5K Paraguay buy was large versus the market’s recent activity, and one fill at 39¢ is already marked near 62¢.

$7,474 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 69%