Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will dip to $75,000 at any point in April. It resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle prints a low of $75,000 or lower before April 30 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to gauge the current odds of a sharp BTC pullback before the month ends.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from the creation of this market to April 30, 11:59 PM ET), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $63,140.
Categories: Bitcoin, Monthly, Hit Price, Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring
Notable Trades
New whale buys No
A brand-new wallet is making a fresh $26.7k bearish Bitcoin dip bet into a 45x volume spike, suggesting strong conviction despite no proven track record yet.
- A 9-hour-old wallet just put $26.7k into No across 3 trades, including a $14.6k buy.
- This came during a 45x volume spike, and the market jumped 26 points in the last day.
- The trader closed an older Yes position and flipped into No around 54-59¢, showing a clear directional view.
$26,711 on No
Profitable BTC-event specialist
A highly active profitable cross-market trader is re-entering BTC dip markets during a major volume surge, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a random small trade.
- This wallet has made 1,410 resolved bets, wins 60% of them, and is up about $342k overall.
- They traded 10 markets tied to the same event for $301k total, pointing to a broad Bitcoin thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This buy came during an 88x volume spike, and 46¢ offers a relatively cheap entry versus the market now pricing Yes around 47%.
$1,212 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
New whale buying NO
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly deployed large size into this BTC market during an extreme volume spike, building a meaningful bearish position by effectively buying No around 52-54¢.
- A wallet less than 9 hours old has already made 3 large flagged bets totaling about $28k
- These trades effectively buy No at 52-54¢ in a Bitcoin market that just saw an 88x volume spike
- The bettor put in $15.2k across 2 trades, enough to matter even in a $34.7k liquidity pool
$15,191 on No
New wallet pressing No
A 3-day-old wallet has already put over $7k into this Bitcoin dip event across repeated bets, and this trade adds fresh conviction by effectively buying No at a better price than the current market.
- This 3-day-old wallet has already made 4 flagged bets totaling about $7.1k, which is unusual for a brand-new account.
- This trade sold Yes at 46¢, which is the same as buying No at 54¢ while No now trades around 61¢.
- The bettor is active across 2 related markets in the same Bitcoin event, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
$1,439 on No
Serial event trader flips thesis
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is rotating into No after closing a prior Yes position, signaling an active thesis on the broader Bitcoin April dip event.
- This wallet has 1,395 resolved bets, a 60% win rate, and is up $333k lifetime
- They have traded 51 markets across 28 related events, showing a repeatable cross-market approach rather than a one-off bet
- After closing an earlier Yes position, they bought No at 61¢, implying they now see a Bitcoin dip to $75k in April as less likely
$1,779 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%
84% win-rate BTC thesis
A profitable high-win-rate wallet is expressing the same Bitcoin downside view across four related markets, and this trade adds to that broader thesis.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and has made the same call across 4 related Bitcoin markets.
- They bought No at 82¢, showing a strong view that BTC will stay above $75,000 this month.
- The market is active and liquid, so this looks more like a deliberate thesis bet than a random punt.
$1,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
84% winner, multi-market thesis
A proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is expressing the same Bitcoin downside thesis across four related markets, and this trade converts to buying Yes at 36¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $16.5k lifetime
- They have put $16.6k across 4 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a coordinated event view
- This fill is equivalent to buying Yes at 36¢, after the market already moved 6 points in a day
$3,418 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
New wallet BTC dip buyer
A brand-new wallet has repeatedly put meaningful size into related BTC dip markets, suggesting fresh conviction rather than a one-off punt.
- This wallet is less than 1 day old and has already made 3 flagged bets totaling $5.6k
- They bought Yes at 52¢ in a liquid BTC market, showing a clear directional view instead of a tiny test trade
- The wallet is also betting across related Bitcoin dip markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a single random bet
$1,626 on Yes
Profitable BTC event specialist
Surface this because a high-volume, profitable serial cross-market trader with 1,296 resolved bets is taking a fresh directional position across this BTC event complex.
- This bettor has 1,296 resolved bets, a 58% win rate, and $351.8k in profit
- They have traded 9 markets in this same BTC event and over 140 related markets overall
- Bought No at 52¢ while the market sits near 49/51, showing a clear directional view rather than a routine whale splash
$1,577 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable multi-market BTC bettor
A highly active, profitable cross-market trader with 1,294 resolved bets is taking the No side across a broad 9-market Bitcoin event, suggesting a deliberate event-level thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor has 1,294 resolved trades, wins 59% of them, and is up about $351k lifetime
- They have put about $809k across 9 related Bitcoin markets in this event, showing a clear event-wide view
- They bought No at 54¢, implying they do not expect BTC to touch $75k before month-end
$3,383 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%
Top Holders
- 0xa2d0...46cf — No, $30,737
- 0x6e1d...d0fa — Yes, $24,367 (58% win rate)
- 0x0fe4...01b7 — Yes, $17,973 (60% win rate)
- 0x1d17...f3ad — No, $14,854 (86% win rate)
- 0x55e2...5fc9 — Yes, $13,720 (64% win rate)
- 0x6916...2fd4 — Yes, $9,758 (56% win rate)
- 0xa0da...1f80 — No, $9,320
- 0x3379...f0b4 — Yes, $7,299 (29% win rate)
- 0x3fe6...cdc6 — No, $6,637
- 0xeee9...7ecb — No, $3,199
