Part of: Mexico vs. Ecuador

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

21 smart money signals detected, totaling $231,686.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 78% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Ecuador Yes at 3%, despite the market now pricing it near 1%.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved positions and is up $62k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $904k deployed across 76 events.
  • Entry at 3¢ is a long-shot position, though the market has since moved down to 1¢.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

89% serial sports bettor

Serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate bought $5.1k of No as market volume spiked, though the edge is tempered by modest lifetime profit and a liquid book.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 64 resolved bets across many sports markets.
  • They bought $5.1k of No at 78¢, backing Ecuador not to win in regulation.
  • Market activity is heating up, with volume running 11.6x above its historical average.

$5,048 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp sports bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying Ecuador Yes at 24¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $89K lifetime.
  • They have traded 72 events with the same strong 86% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
  • Entry at 24¢ implies they see Ecuador as a ~4x payout opportunity.

$3,090 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Perfect-record sports bettor

Sharp serial sports bettor with a 79-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought Ecuador No at 78¢.

  • This bettor has won 79 of 79 resolved trades and is up $13,774 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 57 events with a perfect resolved record.
  • Buying No at 78¢ suggests confidence Ecuador does not win in regulation.

$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

87% winner buying underdog

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% record and strong edge is buying Ecuador Yes despite a highly liquid market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $4,041 lifetime.
  • Their past wins came at 34¢ average odds, suggesting a strong record finding mispriced underdogs.
  • Entry at 23¢ implies they see Ecuador as a roughly 4.3x opportunity.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Perfect-record sports bettor

Sharp serial sports bettor with a 79-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought Ecuador No at 78¢.

  • This bettor has won 79 of 79 resolved trades and is up $13,774 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 57 events with a perfect resolved record.
  • Buying No at 78¢ suggests confidence Ecuador does not win in regulation.

$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

89% serial sports bettor

Serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate bought $5.1k of No as market volume spiked, though the edge is tempered by modest lifetime profit and a liquid book.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 64 resolved bets across many sports markets.
  • They bought $5.1k of No at 78¢, backing Ecuador not to win in regulation.
  • Market activity is heating up, with volume running 11.6x above its historical average.

$5,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

89% serial sports bettor

Serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate bought $5.1k of No as market volume spiked, though the edge is tempered by modest lifetime profit and a liquid book.

  • This bettor has won 89% of 64 resolved bets across many sports markets.
  • They bought $5.1k of No at 78¢, backing Ecuador not to win in regulation.
  • Market activity is heating up, with volume running 11.6x above its historical average.

$5,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable whale leads $167K cluster

Strong copy-trade signal: a highly profitable 91% win-rate whale put $160K on Ecuador Yes, joined by a 4-wallet one-sided cluster and another sharp bettor.

  • A bettor who wins 91% of resolved positions and is up $2.7M put $160K on Yes.
  • Four wallets bought the same side for $167K total at 23–24¢.
  • Another wallet in the group wins 86% of bets and is up $106K lifetime.

$166,670 on Yes

Perfect-record sports bettor

Sharp serial sports bettor with a 79-0 resolved record and positive P&L bought Ecuador No at 78¢.

  • This bettor has won 79 of 79 resolved trades and is up $13,774 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 57 events with a perfect resolved record.
  • Buying No at 78¢ suggests confidence Ecuador does not win in regulation.

$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 14753181, $2,699,973
  2. 0xf031...c80c Outcome 95900004, $1,859,123 (91% win rate)
  3. 0x20b8...aa04 Outcome 95900004, $103,250 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x3dfb...abaf Outcome 95900004, $100,000 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x94d7...bef5 Outcome 95900004, $81,200 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xaa07...2125 Outcome 95900004, $80,774 (52% win rate)
  7. 0x85bb...9ada Outcome 95900004, $60,737 (81% win rate)
  8. 0x2b3d...8db7 Outcome 95900004, $55,220
  9. 0x10a6...4d8b Outcome 95900004, $41,753 (73% win rate)
  10. 0x72b8...9915 Outcome 95900004, $30,022 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Spain won't win World Cup

Covers 5 related markets

Goals, not Germany by two

Covers 5 related markets

Mexico and Ecuador draw

Covers 3 related markets

Iran keeps Belgium low-scoring

Covers 7 related markets

Japan covers in three-goal game

Covers 6 related markets

Argentina wins low scoring match

Covers 5 related markets

Türkiye vs US match canceled

Covers 3 related markets

Morocco wins low scoring

Covers 7 related markets

Türkiye wins two nil

Covers 5 related markets

Three goals, Sweden covers

Covers 6 related markets

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

ResolvedMexico vs. Ecuador$231,686 tracked21 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 30, 2026 If Ecuador wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “No
94¢
84¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 3¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$5,048 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$3,090 on Yes at 24¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,950 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 23¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,950 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$5,012 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$5,077 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$166,670 on Yes at 23¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$3,900 on No at 78¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$5,000 on Yes at 23¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$2,464 on No at 77¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,848 on No at 77¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$6,160 on No at 77¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$2,625 on No at 75¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$5,223 on No at 77¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,078 on Yes at 24¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$1,280 on No at 77¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

1d ago

$2,625 on No at 75¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

2d ago

$5,437 on Yes at 24¢

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

3d ago

$1,750 on No at 75¢

Related Theses

Spain won't win World Cup
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Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA W…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will England win the 2026 FIFA…
Goals, not Germany by two
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Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5
Mexico and Ecuador draw
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Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in…Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30…Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
Iran keeps Belgium low-scoring
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Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Team…Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5
Japan covers in three-goal game
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Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5
Argentina wins low scoring match
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Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5
Türkiye vs US match canceled
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Will Türkiye vs. United States…Will United States win on 2026…Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25…
Morocco wins low scoring
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Spread: Morocco (-3.5)Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5
Türkiye wins two nil
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Türkiye vs. United States: 1st…Spread: United States (-2.5)Spread: United States (-1.5)
Three goals, Sweden covers
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France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5France vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5