This bettor has won 76% of resolved bets and is up $5.1K lifetime. They put $6.9K on Under at 46¢ in a liquid UFC market. Entry at 46¢ implies a roughly 2.2x payout if the fight ends before 1.5 rounds.

Part of: UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

O/U 1.5 Rounds

8 smart money signals detected, totaling $56,994.

Categories: Sports, UFC, Games

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader cluster

Three wallets bought $15.2k of Under 1.5 rounds during a major volume spike, led by a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with $1.7M lifetime profit.

A bettor up $1.7M lifetime joined this Under position and has won 72% of 206 resolved bets.
Three wallets bought the same side within 11 minutes, totaling $15.2k on Under 1.5 rounds.
Market volume is running 78x above normal, suggesting this UFC rounds line is drawing unusually focused action.

$15,194 on Under

Elite sharp Over cluster

Surface: three wallets bought Over, led by a 97% lifetime winner up over $1M with a long cross-market track record and a major pre-event volume spike.

Lead wallet wins 97% of resolved bets and is up about $1.03M lifetime.
Three wallets bought $8K of Over at 55¢ in the same window.
Market volume spiked 185x before the fight, with Over already moving up 3.5% today.

$8,004 on Over

Profitable UFC sharp

Surface due to a proven profitable bettor with a 76% record and positive P&L buying Under despite only a modest win-rate signal.

This bettor has won 76% of resolved bets and is up $5.1K lifetime.
They put $6.9K on Under at 46¢ in a liquid UFC market.
Entry at 46¢ implies a roughly 2.2x payout if the fight ends before 1.5 rounds.

$6,900 on Under | Wallet win rate: 52%

Perfect-record UFC bettor

Sharp wallet with a perfect 14-0 resolved record and strong profit is buying Under at near-even odds on a UFC rounds market.

This bettor has won all 14 resolved bets and is up $38,784 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events with about $94,911 in prior activity.
Buying Under at 49¢ is a near-even entry, while the market has already moved strongly toward shorter fight duration this week.

$2,000 on Under | Wallet win rate: 66%

98% UFC sharp buying Over

Elite 98% win-rate bettor with nearly $2M profit is buying Over 1.5 rounds into a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up $1.96M lifetime.
They put $16.9K on Over around 52–53¢, and the market has already moved to 55¢.
This wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 53 events with a strong track record.

$16,897 on Over | Wallet win rate: 98%

Perfect-record UFC bettor

Sharp wallet with a perfect 14-0 resolved record and strong profit is buying Under at near-even odds on a UFC rounds market.

This bettor has won all 14 resolved bets and is up $38,784 lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 31 events with about $94,911 in prior activity.
Buying Under at 49¢ is a near-even entry, while the market has already moved strongly toward shorter fight duration this week.

$2,141 on Under | Wallet win rate: 66%

90% winning UFC bettor

Sharp UFC bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and strong lifetime profit bought Under 1.5 rounds for a meaningful share of daily volume.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $211,980 lifetime.
They bought $3,920 of Under, equal to 53% of this market’s 24h volume.
Entry at 49¢ implies they see the early finish side as underpriced.

$3,920 on Under | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable serial UFC bettor

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Over in a thin UFC rounds market with a stake far larger than recent 24h volume.

This bettor has won 68% of 633 resolved trades and is up $47k lifetime.
The $1.9k buy is nearly 4x this market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 54¢ implies they see value in the fight going past 1.5 rounds.

$1,938 on Over | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

0x7966...6f94 — Outcome 10732050, $31,383 (91% win rate)
0xc74d...bb53 — Outcome 10732050, $18,935 (100% win rate)
0xdc40...89cf — Outcome 10732050, $16,409 (62% win rate)
0x55a1...db28 — Outcome 10732050, $15,000 (83% win rate)
0xdb85...152f — Outcome 10732050, $10,597 (81% win rate)
0xc233...0561 — Outcome 10732050, $8,718 (66% win rate)
0x21f3...35e3 — Outcome 10732050, $5,099 (74% win rate)
0x696a...e23a — Outcome 10732050, $4,060 (89% win rate)
0xc590...dd1e — Outcome 10732050, $3,225
0x4953...bd5e — Outcome 10732050, $3,160

Related Theses

O/U 1.5 Rounds

ResolvedUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)$56,994 tracked8 signalsSportsUFCGames

Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: “Over 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. “Under 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for a 1.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.” If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond June 28, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.” The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.