When is the Marozsan vs Arnaldi match scheduled?

The match is scheduled for August 5, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

How does the Marozsan vs Arnaldi market resolve?

The market resolves to Fabian Marozsan if he advances and to Matteo Arnaldi if he advances. Special rules may apply if the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the stated seven-day window.

What smart-money activity is visible in this market?

PolySpotter tracks $75,502 in smart-money activity across three signals, including reported sharp-bettor interest in both Marozsan and Arnaldi.

Part of: National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

Q: What is the Marozsan vs Arnaldi prediction market?

It is a tennis prediction market for the National Bank Open match between Fabian Marozsan and Matteo Arnaldi. Traders buy shares representing which player will advance.

This Polymarket prediction market covers the National Bank Open match between Fabian Marozsan and Matteo Arnaldi, scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET. It resolves to the player who advances, with live market pricing and smart-money activity available as the event approaches; the listed resolution date is August 12, 2026.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $99,256.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Coordinated sharp-money Arnaldi push

A large coordinated move toward Matteo Arnaldi included several highly profitable bettors, including a 91% winner up $2.76 million, though many trades appear retrospective after resolution.

Twelve wallets put nearly $49,000 behind Matteo Arnaldi, with the market moving sharply to 100%.
Several participants have exceptional records, including a bettor with a 91% win rate and $2.76 million in profit.
The strongest actionable entry was Arnaldi at 42¢, implying substantial upside, but the market now appears resolved at 100¢.

$48,955 on Matteo Arnaldi

Sharp bettor joins 14-wallet cluster

A proven, profitable bettor made a concentrated Fabian Marozsan bet alongside 14 wallets, though the market has since moved to 0% and the trade is no longer actionable.

This bettor wins 84% of 187 resolved trades and is up $477,668 lifetime.
Four trades totaling $6,441 backed Fabian Marozsan at 62–64%, alongside 13 other wallets staking $80,814 in the same direction.
The market is now showing Fabian at 0%, so this is valuable as a sharp-trader study rather than a live entry.

$6,441 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp bettor in 14-wallet Marozsan cluster

A historically exceptional bettor joined a 14-wallet, $80.8K one-sided move on Marozsan, though the position has since collapsed to zero.

This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades—247 of 256—and is up $863K lifetime.
Fourteen wallets bought Marozsan for a combined $80.8K, creating a strong coordinated-conviction signal.
The trade entered at 64–65¢ but Marozsan is now at 0¢, so this is more useful as a failed-signal study than a live copy.

$20,106 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 97%

Proven serial bettor adds to Marozsan

A highly experienced bettor with 561 resolved trades, a 79% win rate, and substantial positive edge added to an existing Fabian Marozsan position.

This bettor wins 79% of 561 resolved trades and is up $151,917 lifetime.
The wallet has demonstrated a 26-point edge over its average entry odds across 105 events.
This was an additional $2,497 bet on Marozsan, building on an existing $3,803 position at 66¢.

$2,222 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven serial bettor adds to Marozsan

A highly experienced bettor with 561 resolved trades, a 79% win rate, and substantial positive edge added to an existing Fabian Marozsan position.

This bettor wins 79% of 561 resolved trades and is up $151,917 lifetime.
The wallet has demonstrated a 26-point edge over its average entry odds across 105 events.
This was an additional $2,497 bet on Marozsan, building on an existing $3,803 position at 66¢.

$2,497 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettor scaling into Marozsan

A proven tennis bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Fabian Marozsan position at 57%.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $85,555 lifetime.
They have beaten implied odds by about 40 percentage points across 38 resolved positions.
Adding another $4,351 to an existing Marozsan position shows continued conviction at 57%.

$4,351 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite tennis bettor backs Arnaldi

A highly proven bettor with an 83% win rate and substantial edge is buying Matteo Arnaldi at 43¢.

This bettor wins 83% of 364 resolved positions and is up $4.27 million.
They bought Matteo Arnaldi at 43¢ despite the market implying only a 44% chance.
The wallet has traded across 716 markets and deployed more than $13 million.

$3,812 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 84%

91% win-rate tennis sharp

A highly proven bettor with a 91% win rate across 4,238 resolved positions is buying Matteo Arnaldi at 42%, making this a strong sharp-bettor signal.

This bettor wins 91% of trades across 4,238 resolved positions and is up $2.75 million.
They are buying Matteo Arnaldi at 42% despite the market pricing him as a 42% underdog.
The wallet has traded across 284 events and nearly $1.1 million, providing unusually strong evidence of expertise.

$1,050 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable whale scales into Marozsan

A profitable high-volume serial trader added nearly $10,000 to an existing Marozsan position in an exceptionally quiet market, though the lack of price movement and only moderate win rate temper the signal.

A trader up $580,000 lifetime placed nearly $10,000 on Fabian Marozsan in a market with only $555 of 24-hour volume.
This adds to an existing $20,916 Marozsan position, signaling continued conviction rather than a new one-off bet.
The wallet has traded across 320 markets and 291 events, but its 56% win rate is solid rather than elite.

$9,822 on Fabian Marozsan | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 94694603, $51,677 (63% win rate)
0x981e...02d9 — Outcome 94694603, $25,140
0x8a3a...eb9a — Outcome 94694603, $20,916 (56% win rate)
0x45e4...7e20 — Outcome 94694603, $20,000 (47% win rate)
0xcf6c...7e66 — Outcome 94694603, $13,226 (81% win rate)
0xf519...906b — Outcome 94694603, $10,000 (72% win rate)
0xa7a4...e371 — Outcome 94694603, $7,633 (82% win rate)
0xe741...a9d1 — Outcome 94694603, $7,113
0x9c3c...e8c9 — Outcome 94694603, $4,310 (95% win rate)
0xc3c3...eec8 — Outcome 94694603, $4,000 (99% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

3dNational Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi$99,256 tracked9 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Fabian Marozsan and Matteo Arnaldi in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Fabian Marozsan' if Fabian Marozsan advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Fabian Marozsan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Fabian Marozsan”

67¢

60¢

53¢