What is the Predict.fun $600M FDV market predicting?

It predicts whether Predict.fun’s governance token will reach a fully diluted valuation greater than $600 million one day after its launch.

How is Predict.fun’s FDV calculated for this market?

The market uses fully diluted valuation, calculated as the token’s total supply multiplied by its market price at the resolution time.

When does this Predict.fun FDV market resolve?

The key measurement time is 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token launches. The listed resolution date is January 1, 2028, but the market criteria depend on the actual launch timing.

What counts as a token launch for this market?

Predict.fun’s governance token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If the token is not publicly tradable, it does not count as launched under the market rules.

What does smart money activity show on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $20,635 in smart money tied to this market, with recent alerts including a brand-new whale buying NO and an 82% winner buying YES.

Part of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?

This prediction market asks whether Predict.fun’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $600 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price, and the token must be publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. PolySpotter is tracking $20,635 in smart money activity, including recent whale and high-win-rate bettor signals on both YES and NO.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,035.

Categories: Crypto, Predict.fun, FDV, Pre-Market, fdv

Notable Trades

Brand-new whale buying NO

Brand-new wallet deployed $20.6k buying No on a very quiet market while also positioning across related Predict.fun FDV markets.

A wallet only 18 minutes old put $20.6k on No, part of $64.3k in recent flagged bets.
This bet dwarfed normal activity, landing in a market with only about $231 traded in the last 24 hours.
The buyer swept No from 24¢ up to 59¢, showing strong conviction despite no resolved track record yet.

$20,635 on No

82% winner buying YES

Sharp-wallet override: an 82% winning bettor with positive lifetime P&L is taking Yes exposure on a relatively quiet crypto FDV market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $1.5k lifetime.
They took $2.1k of Yes exposure, equal to about 27% of the market’s 24h volume.
Entry at 31¢ gives cheaper Yes exposure than the current 34¢ market price.

$2,068 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

92% win-rate bettor

A bettor with a 92% win rate is taking the equivalent of a fresh Yes position here, and their cross-market event trading makes this worth surfacing despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 106 bets
They sold No at 74¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 26¢
They are trading multiple markets tied to the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis

$1,332 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%