Part of: Portugal vs. Croatia - More Markets
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $847,809.
Categories: Soccer, FIFA World Cup, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor with 21-wallet flow
A proven profitable sports bettor bought Over alongside a large 21-wallet one-sided flow, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved positions and is up $189k lifetime.
- 21 wallets bought the same Over side, totaling $132k in one-sided flow.
- The bettor entered at 54¢, but Over has since dropped to 28¢, creating a much cheaper follow price.
$9,930 on Over | Wallet win rate: 77%
Four-wallet Over push
Coordinated $75k Over buying across 4 wallets is worth surfacing, though the main wallet’s negative lifetime P&L and the move from 46¢ to 35¢ make this a flow signal rather than a proven-sharp bettor.
- Four wallets bought the same side, putting about $75k into Over.
- This wallet added $64k and has traded across 406 events, so this is a serious position rather than a casual bet.
- The market has moved against them from 46¢ to 35¢, making the same side available cheaper than the whale paid.
$63,744 on Over | Wallet win rate: 65%
83% winner buying Over
Elite sports bettor with an 83% win rate bought Over, alongside heavy one-sided flow and a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $364K lifetime.
- Seven wallets have pushed $286K in the same direction on Over.
- Market volume is running 38x above its historical average ahead of the match.
$1,536 on Over | Wallet win rate: 83%
21-wallet Under cluster
A 21-wallet linked cluster and several profitable serial sports traders pushed $165k into Under, moving it sharply from roughly 40–60¢ to 72¢.
- 21 wallets, including linked accounts, put $165k on the same Under side.
- The move has already repriced the market hard, with Under jumping to 72¢ after entries around 40–60¢.
- Several repeat sports traders joined the flow, including wallets with large positive lifetime profits.
$164,677 on Under
$161K one-sided Over flow
High composite alert driven by six-wallet one-sided buying of Over totaling about $161K, plus a new wallet joining the move shortly before the match.
- Six wallets are all buying Over, with about $161K moving the same way.
- This is a very new wallet, only 4 hours old, already making repeat flagged bets.
- The market has seen an 18x volume spike, and Over has moved up about 5 points today.
$1,274 on Over | Wallet win rate: 100%
6-wallet Over surge
Coordinated one-sided flow and an 18x pre-game volume spike point toward Over, though this specific wallet has poor lifetime P&L and may be closing an Under position.
- Six wallets have pushed $160k in the same direction on Over before kickoff.
- Market activity is 18x normal, and Over has moved up 5 points to 54%.
- This trade sold Under at 49¢, equivalent to buying Over at 51¢.
$50,977 on Over | Wallet win rate: 57%
83% winner buying Over
Elite sports bettor with an 83% win rate bought Over, alongside heavy one-sided flow and a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $364K lifetime.
- Seven wallets have pushed $286K in the same direction on Over.
- Market volume is running 38x above its historical average ahead of the match.
$1,500 on Over | Wallet win rate: 83%
New whale joins 7-wallet Over push
High-conviction Over buying from a 2-day-old repeat whale alongside 7-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-game volume spike.
- A 2-day-old wallet bought $119K of Over and has already placed $461K in flagged large bets.
- Seven wallets are all buying Over, totaling $286K in the same direction.
- Market volume is surging before kickoff, with activity running 38x above its historical average.
$119,065 on Over | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp bettor joins Over cluster
Sharp profitable bettor bought Over alongside a large 7-wallet one-sided push and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up about $20,005 lifetime.
- Seven wallets are all buying Over, totaling about $285,806 in same-direction flow.
- Market volume is surging at 38x its historical pace, with Over already moving up about 5 points today.
$1,060 on Over | Wallet win rate: 58%
92% winner flipping to Over
A highly profitable 92% sports bettor exited Under, effectively backing Over, alongside one-sided flow from other wallets.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $586K lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market sports trader, with $3.25M bet across 299 events.
- Three wallets are all leaning Over, with $12.9K total on the same side.
$8,518 on Over | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0xf031...c80c — Outcome 39454486, $417,623 (88% win rate)
- 0x3f3a...e8fd — Outcome 39454486, $168,259 (66% win rate)
- 0xa6d1...286a — Outcome 39454486, $92,838 (83% win rate)
- 0x02af...aaa9 — Outcome 39454486, $62,451 (71% win rate)
- 0xa1f3...d99c — Outcome 39454486, $47,769 (92% win rate)
- 0x3d85...197f — Outcome 39454486, $41,468 (83% win rate)
- 0xa0da...1f80 — Outcome 39454486, $41,024 (95% win rate)
- 0x83b4...23fe — Outcome 39454486, $40,030 (84% win rate)
- 0xd86e...45ce — Outcome 39454486, $36,903 (95% win rate)
- 0xe653...c4a7 — Outcome 39454486, $30,000 (75% win rate)
Related Theses
England Ghana ends 1-1
Covers 3 related markets
Argentina-Austria stays low scoring
Covers 4 related markets
Tunisia keeps Japan close
Covers 4 related markets
Iran New Zealand odds mispriced
Covers 3 related markets
Argentina Algeria stays low-scoring
Covers 4 related markets
Belgium-Senegal ends with four goals
Covers 4 related markets
Scotland-Brazil stays tight and low
Covers 6 related markets
Argentina advances in goalfest
Covers 5 related markets
Bosnia-Qatar stays low scoring
Covers 4 related markets
Early goal, exactly two total
Covers 4 related markets
