Part of: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner
This Polymarket market predicts the Map 2 winner between Natus Vincere and Spirit in their Counter-Strike Round 1 match at IEM Cologne Major Stage 3. It resolves after Map 2 is completed with a winner, with smart money activity currently showing $49,878 tracked across 6 signals and several sharp alerts favoring Spirit.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $150,017.
Categories: counter strike 2, Games, Sports, Esports
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading favorite
Surfacing because a proven profitable esports/cross-market bettor with a 79% record is leaning toward Natus Vincere, though two trades look like Spirit position exits rather than fresh buys.
- One wallet in this cluster wins 79% of resolved bets and is up about $93.8K lifetime.
- The same bettor is a serial cross-market trader across 40 events with a strong 68% hit rate.
- The Natus Vincere side is now cheaper than their effective 30¢ entry, though part of the flow came from closing Spirit positions.
$4,138 on Natus Vincere
83% winning esports trader
Sharp esports trader with an 83% resolved win rate and strong cross-market history bought Spirit despite a recent move lower.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $41K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 53 events with the same 83% hit rate.
- They bought Spirit at 90¢ while the market has since pulled back to 82¢, offering a cheaper follow entry than their fill.
$1,038 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 83%
92% win-rate esports whale
Elite profitable serial cross-market bettor bought $5.9k of Spirit at 82¢, supported by a 25.8x pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.6M lifetime.
- They are a massive serial cross-market trader, with $6.6M traded across 680 markets.
- Spirit has heavy market support, with a 25.8x pre-event volume spike and odds now at 82¢.
$5,859 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial esports trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Spirit at 74¢ before an 8-point move, alongside a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has won 60% of 309 resolved trades and is up $143K lifetime.
- They have traded 106 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market sports/esports edge.
- Bought Spirit at 74¢ before the market moved to 82¢ amid a 25.8x volume spike.
$1,500 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 60%
Sharp esports bettor backing favorite
Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought Spirit despite only a modest composite score, supported by a large pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $2.3k on $9.6k invested.
- They bought Spirit at 90¢, showing high conviction on the Map 2 favorite.
- Market activity spiked 25.8x before the event, suggesting broader momentum around this match.
$2,149 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 81%
94% sharp in 9-wallet push
A highly profitable 94% winner bought Natus Vincere alongside 9 same-direction wallets, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor has won 17 of 18 resolved bets and is up $133k lifetime.
- 9 wallets are buying the same side, totaling $19k in one-sided flow.
- Their 41¢ entry has fallen to 20¢, making this a high-risk contrarian sharp signal.
$1,497 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 94%
9-wallet esports cluster
Coordinated one-sided flow and a major volume spike make this Natus Vincere buy worth watching, though the price has moved sharply against the entry.
- Nine wallets bought Natus Vincere the same way, totaling about $19k in one-sided flow.
- This market saw a 108x volume spike before the event, suggesting unusual attention on this side.
- The bettor is profitable over a very large sample, but this entry has already moved from 40¢ down to 20¢.
$1,800 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 56%
Sharp bettor in 9-wallet wave
Sharp 91% win-rate bettor joined a 9-wallet one-sided Natus Vincere buy wave during a major volume spike, though the market has since moved sharply against the entry.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $57K lifetime.
- Nine wallets bought the same side, totaling $19K on Natus Vincere.
- The entry was 46¢, but the market has fallen to about 20¢ since the trade.
$7,000 on Natus Vincere | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp underdog cluster
A high-conviction Natus Vincere cluster includes multiple highly profitable wallets, with $55K bought despite the price moving lower afterward.
- One of the biggest buyers is 21-for-21 and up about $800K lifetime.
- 10 wallets bought $55K of Natus Vincere, including two linked wallets and several profitable accounts.
- Current price is 34¢, below the cluster’s roughly 40¢ average entry.
$55,475 on Natus Vincere
94% winner backs Spirit
Elite 94% win-rate wallet with $4.37M profit bought Spirit amid a 9-wallet one-sided move and major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $4.37M lifetime.
- They have traded 609 events and $8.3M across markets, suggesting a deep sports edge.
- Nine wallets are buying the same side, with $30.9K flowing into Spirit.
$1,292 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x5291...d4b6 — Outcome 44692094, $97,527 (100% win rate)
- 0x67bb...b6ef — Outcome 44692094, $27,753 (62% win rate)
- 0x1d2e...896d — Outcome 44692094, $23,183 (50% win rate)
- 0x9679...9315 — Outcome 44692094, $15,063 (91% win rate)
- 0x93f6...4814 — Outcome 44692094, $8,711 (35% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Outcome 44692094, $6,087 (97% win rate)
- 0x9f6e...b0e0 — Outcome 44692094, $6,000 (68% win rate)
- 0x7553...65ca — Outcome 44692094, $6,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x9368...80a3 — Outcome 44692094, $5,983 (94% win rate)
- 0x3a86...cc01 — Outcome 44692094, $5,863 (54% win rate)
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