Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,087.

Categories: CPI, Economy, Inflation, CPI Release, Macro Indicators

Notable Trades

Serial trader scaling into No

A consistently profitable serial trader is adding $5,543 to an existing No position in a thin market, with the bet exceeding reported 24-hour volume.

This bettor has won 66% of 1,471 resolved trades and is up nearly $96,000 lifetime.
They added $5,543 to No at 86–87¢, an unusually large position relative to the market’s thin recent volume.
The wallet has traded across 139 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable market-selection process rather than a one-off bet.

$5,543 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader makes concentrated No bet

A serial cross-market trader with a large positive lifetime P&L placed a concentrated $3,479 bet on No in a relatively thin market, though the trader's edge is modest.

This trader has resolved 1,468 bets with a 66% win rate and is up $97,800 lifetime.
The $3,479 No position represents 82% of recent 24-hour volume in a market with only $9,623 liquidity.
The 87¢ entry implies the trader sees roughly an 87% chance that July inflation will not be exactly 3.5%.

$2,064 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Serial trader makes concentrated No bet

A serial cross-market trader with a large positive lifetime P&L placed a concentrated $3,479 bet on No in a relatively thin market, though the trader's edge is modest.

This trader has resolved 1,468 bets with a 66% win rate and is up $97,800 lifetime.
The $3,479 No position represents 82% of recent 24-hour volume in a market with only $9,623 liquidity.
The 87¢ entry implies the trader sees roughly an 87% chance that July inflation will not be exactly 3.5%.

$3,479 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 78560085, $32,064
0x9648...6825 — Outcome 84091059, $27,962 (69% win rate)
0xb6ed...1ae4 — Outcome 84091059, $1,184
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 84091059, $932
0xc34e...bb55 — Outcome 84091059, $596
0x1d5f...634d — Outcome 84091059, $500 (76% win rate)
0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 84091059, $331 (94% win rate)
0xa667...ceb3 — Outcome 84091059, $317 (90% win rate)
0xd2af...28c3 — Outcome 84091059, $200
0xd9fe...db0d — Outcome 84091059, $176

Related Theses

Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?

ResolvedJuly Inflation US - Annual$11,087 tracked3 signalsCPIEconomyInflationCPI ReleaseMacro Indicators

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Price History — “No”

90¢

84¢

79¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction