What does the Alcaraz vs Machac prediction market resolve on?

This market resolves to the player who advances from the Barcelona Open match. It will resolve to Carlos Alcaraz if he advances, or Tomas Machac if Machac advances.

When is Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac scheduled?

The match is originally scheduled for April 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. The market resolution deadline is April 23, 2026, allowing for delays within the stated rules.

What happens if Alcaraz vs Machac is canceled or postponed?

If the match is canceled and never played, ends in a tie, or is delayed by more than 7 days from the scheduled start without a winner being determined, the market will void according to the market rules.

What is smart money doing in this Polymarket?

Recent tracking shows limited but notable smart money interest on Carlos Alcaraz, including a 3-wallet Alcaraz cluster and a sharp bettor buy. In total, PolySpotter tracked $5,947 in smart money across 1 signal for this market.

Why are traders watching Alcaraz vs Machac on Polymarket?

Searchers and traders are following this market for live prediction market odds on a high-profile Barcelona Open matchup. Carlos Alcaraz draws strong market attention, and Polymarket prices can offer a real-time view of who traders believe is more likely to advance.

Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac

This Polymarket covers the Barcelona Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tomas Machac, scheduled for April 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with current smart money activity showing interest on Alcaraz through a small cluster of sharp betting signals. If the match is not played, ends without a winner, or is delayed more than 7 days, the market will void under the listed rules.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,713.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Profitable serial sports bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 353 resolved bets and $142k profit bought Tomas Machac at even odds during a 37x pre-match volume spike, making this a credible sharp-positioning signal.

This bettor has 353 resolved bets, wins 62% of them, and is up $142k overall
They bought Tomas Machac at 50¢ while market activity surged 37x above normal
This wallet has traded across 365 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt

$5,947 on Tomas Machac | Wallet win rate: 62%

Sharp bettor buys Alcaraz

A proven sharp wallet with an 86% win rate sold Machac at 49¢, equivalent to buying Alcaraz at 51¢, during an unusually large volume surge in this match market.

This bettor wins 86% of their trades with a +28% edge versus the odds.
Their sell of Machac at 49¢ is effectively a buy on Alcaraz at 51¢.
Match volume is running 122x above normal, so this bet lines up with strong market attention.

$2,369 on Carlos Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 86%

3-wallet Alcaraz cluster

Three wallets piled into Alcaraz with over $10k as volume spiked and price moved sharply, including one bettor with an 86% win rate and another profitable wallet.

Three wallets put $10.4k on Alcaraz in a coordinated burst as market volume jumped 55x.
One bettor wins 86% of resolved bets, and another is up $35.9k lifetime.
Two wallets effectively bought Alcaraz at 51¢ by selling Machac at 49¢, close to the current 50-51¢ market.

$10,396 on Carlos Alcaraz

Top Holders

0xd000...a8b6 — Outcome 97176320, $2,951
0xdb02...0f88 — Outcome 97176320, $2,187
0x63c6...d030 — Outcome 43094633, $197
0x4ce9...61c1 — Outcome 97176320, $44
0x038c...0290 — Outcome 97176320, $26
0x4c81...7bda — Outcome 43094633, $25
0x8cbd...302b — Outcome 97176320, $23
0x6cac...e88e — Outcome 97176320, $19
0x0b87...9414 — Outcome 97176320, $12
0xe831...d9d6 — Outcome 97176320, $11

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac

3d$18,713 tracked3 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tomas Machac in the Barcelona Open, originally scheduled for April 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.