Part of: Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoe
This prediction market covers the Cincinnati Open match between Learner Tien and Frances Tiafoe, scheduled for August 18, 2026. The market has $6,971 in tracked smart-money activity and one recorded signal; live outcome odds were not included in the provided data. It resolves when a player advances, or by August 25, 2026 if the match remains undecided.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $170,520.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Six-wallet Tien conviction cluster
Six wallets committed $57.5K to Learner Tien amid a 156x volume spike and sharp-bettor participation, while the opposing side sold into the move.
- Six wallets bought Learner Tien for $57,493, including bettors with 94% and 77% historical win rates.
- The market saw a 156x volume spike and moved 7% toward Tien, with a 29-point decline in Tiafoe pricing.
- Several wallets added to existing Tien positions, while one trader sold Tiafoe at 38¢—reinforcing the one-sided thesis.
$70,143 on Learner Tien
Serial sharp scaling into Tiafoe
A highly active bettor with an 81% win rate added $10,000 to an existing Frances Tiafoe position amid a 70x volume spike.
- This bettor has won 81% of 962 resolved trades across 545 events and is up about $110,000.
- They added $10,000 to an existing Tiafoe position at 62¢, showing increased conviction before the price rose to roughly 70¢.
- The market saw a 70.2x historical volume spike, providing additional evidence of unusually strong activity around this match.
$10,000 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 82%
Five-funder cluster backs Tiafoe
A linked five-funder cluster deployed $66,155 across 18 wallets to buy Tiafoe, including several highly profitable bettors, before the market moved decisively to his side.
- 18 linked wallets invested $66,155 in Frances Tiafoe, with major entries around 39–47¢ before the outcome reached 100%.
- The group included bettors with strong records, including a 93% winner up $2.1 million and an 89% winner up $36,500.
- A 42-point drop in Tien’s price and a 10.1x volume spike corroborated the coordinated Tiafoe positioning, though opposing flow also makes this a crowded trade.
$66,155 on Frances Tiafoe
Sharp bettor buys Tien underdog
A highly profitable serial bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $1,116 underdog bet amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 85% of 446 resolved positions and is up $279,864 lifetime.
- They bought $1,116 of Learner Tien at 38%, despite the market pricing him at only 36%.
- The market saw a 107x historical volume spike, adding support to the fresh position.
$1,116 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp bettor scales into Tien
A proven bettor with a 75% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding $12,960 to an existing Learner Tien position at 54 cents.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $137,169 lifetime.
- The $12,960 purchase adds to an existing $24,000 Learner Tien position, signaling increased conviction.
- The entry at 54¢ implies the bettor sees Learner Tien as meaningfully undervalued despite a near-even market.
$12,960 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 77%
Elite tennis bettor backs Learner Tien
A highly profitable tennis bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $2,120 wager on Learner Tien at 53%.
- This bettor wins 85% of 280 resolved positions and is up $1.34 million.
- The $2,120 wager buys Learner Tien at 53%, while the bettor’s average winning entry is just 48%.
- A serial trader active across 260 events is taking a clear position in this tennis match.
$2,700 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 86%
95% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial sports trader with a 95% win rate and substantial edge is backing Frances Tiafoe at 47%.
- This bettor has won 95% of 1,825 resolved positions and earned $877,458 in profit.
- The trader is a serial participant across 332 events, suggesting a broad and repeatable sports-trading edge.
- Frances Tiafoe was bought at 47¢, near the current 46% market odds, with a copy ceiling of 57¢.
$1,241 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 94%
Elite serial bettor backs Tien
A highly proven bettor with an 83% win rate across 1,382 resolved positions is making a fresh $1,886 bet on Learner Tien at 53 cents.
- This bettor wins 83% of 1,382 resolved positions and is up about $2.0 million.
- They are making a fresh $1,886 wager on Learner Tien at 53¢.
- The wallet has traded across 146 events, providing unusually strong evidence of repeatable skill.
$1,886 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 83%
Elite tennis bettor backs Learner Tien
A highly profitable tennis bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is making a fresh $2,120 wager on Learner Tien at 53%.
- This bettor wins 85% of 280 resolved positions and is up $1.34 million.
- The $2,120 wager buys Learner Tien at 53%, while the bettor’s average winning entry is just 48%.
- A serial trader active across 260 events is taking a clear position in this tennis match.
$2,120 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven serial bettor backs Tiafoe
A highly experienced serial trader with 1,097 resolved bets, an 80% win rate, and substantial positive edge is taking Frances Tiafoe at 46%.
- This bettor has won 80% of 1,097 resolved bets and is up $603,147 lifetime.
- The trader is buying Frances Tiafoe at 46%, suggesting a meaningful view that the market is underpricing him.
- With activity across 299 events and $775,089 in traded volume, this is a repeatable bettor rather than a one-off whale.
$2,200 on Frances Tiafoe | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x5455...8b2a — Outcome 98629433, $24,000 (77% win rate)
- 0xf377...4159 — Outcome 98629433, $17,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 98629433, $15,349 (65% win rate)
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 98629433, $11,661 (85% win rate)
- 0x081e...f76e — Outcome 98629433, $8,065 (93% win rate)
- 0xc3c3...eec8 — Outcome 98629433, $7,500 (99% win rate)
- 0xf3a1...bf4b — Outcome 98629433, $7,353 (98% win rate)
- 0x3e04...564d — Outcome 98629433, $5,558 (83% win rate)
- 0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 98629433, $5,405 (78% win rate)
- 0xf83b...44a2 — Outcome 98629433, $4,291 (85% win rate)
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