Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will dip to $50,000 or lower at any point before the end of December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle posts a low at or below $50,000 during the market window; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is set to resolve on January 1, 2027, and PolySpotter tracks smart money activity and sharp signals around the odds.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,349.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
90% winner, bearish BTC
A bettor with a 90% win rate is expressing the same Bitcoin downside view across related markets, which is notable even though this specific fill is modest.
- This bettor wins 90% of their trades with 46 wins and $17.4k profit
- They are making the same Bitcoin downside bet across 2 related markets, showing a broader thesis
- They effectively bought Yes at 47¢ while the market has fallen 8 points over the past week
$1,425 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Sharp bettor buying No
A profitable bettor with a strong long-term edge bought No at 55¢ in a deep macro market, making this a credible copy-trade despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 75% of their trades and is up $36.8k across 65 resolved markets
- They bought No at 55¢, implying they think Bitcoin staying above $50k through 2026 is still underpriced
- The market is liquid and active, so this looks more like a deliberate view from a proven bettor than a random punt
$1,695 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
57-0 crypto specialist
A bettor with a perfect 57-for-57 record is making a cross-market Bitcoin thesis bet, backing No at 55¢ in a liquid market after the Yes side has sold off.
- This bettor has won 57 of 57 resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime
- They have put $13.2k across 3 related Bitcoin dip markets, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 55¢ while Yes has fallen 11 points this week, suggesting they see the crash odds as overstated
$2,990 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp cross-market BTC trader
A proven high-volume bettor with a 72% win rate reopened a sizable No position in a liquid Bitcoin event after already trading this market successfully, and their broader 7-market event positioning suggests a deliberate cross-market thesis.
- This bettor has won 471 of 650 resolved markets and is up $333k overall
- They placed $48k across 7 related Bitcoin markets in this event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
- They reopened No at 56¢ after previously closing a No position here, signaling fresh conviction despite the market drifting lower over the past week
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
11-wallet sharp cluster
An 11-wallet linked cluster is backing the same side, and this wallet has an exceptional 98% win rate across 52 resolved markets.
- This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades with a $52k profit track record
- 11 linked wallets funded by the same source are moving together on this thesis
- They bought No at 54¢ in a liquid market after a 1-week 8-point drop in Yes odds
$1,942 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Profitable BTC event trader
A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader with a 72% win rate is rotating from a prior No position into the opposite side across this Bitcoin event, creating a copyable Yes entry around 54¢.
- This bettor has won 469 of 648 resolved trades and is up $322k lifetime.
- They have traded 7 related Bitcoin markets for $47k total, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This sale of No at 46¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 54¢, showing a directional flip from their earlier No position.
$5,437 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
11-wallet sharp cluster
An 11-wallet linked cluster with an exceptional 98% winner is buying No at 50¢ in a liquid BTC market, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than random whale flow.
- This wallet wins 98% of resolved bets with $52k profit across 52 markets.
- 11 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign of coordinated conviction.
- Buying No at 50¢ means they think Bitcoin staying above $50k is mispriced.
$1,004 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
98% winner in funded cluster
Surface this because a wallet from an 11-wallet linked cluster with an exceptional 98% historical win rate bought No at 48¢ on a major BTC market, suggesting coordinated sharp conviction.
- This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades with a $52k profit history.
- 11 linked wallets share the same funder, pointing to coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 48¢ in a liquid Bitcoin market, a price that implies they think the dip is less likely than the market does.
$1,055 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
Proven cross-market sharp
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate and $311k profit is taking another event-level position here at even odds, making this wallet worth following despite the modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 72% of resolved trades and is up $311k across 640 settled bets
- They have traded 456 markets across 341 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge rather than a one-off bet
- Bought No at 50¢ in a liquid market after a 7.5-point weekly move, implying they still see the downside path as overpriced
$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Proven cross-market crypto bettor
A proven high-volume crypto event trader with a 72% win rate is making a fresh cross-market thesis bet across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, which is worth tracking despite the modest single-ticket size.
- This bettor has won 72% of 639 resolved trades and is up $311k lifetime
- They have put $42.6k across 7 related Bitcoin dip markets, pointing to a clear event-wide view
- This entry bought No at 50¢, a clean even-money price in a liquid market
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xcc50...4c82 — No, $103,437 (40% win rate)
- 0x861f...177d — Yes, $68,824 (44% win rate)
- 0x67ae...0f0a — No, $35,890 (100% win rate)
- 0x6131...fd16 — Yes, $33,216 (44% win rate)
- 0x60bf...15aa — Yes, $26,461
- 0x41b8...1c0d — Yes, $24,880 (100% win rate)
- 0x5371...76eb — No, $23,182 (100% win rate)
- 0xd0f1...6712 — No, $20,321
- 0x66ad...cc4e — No, $20,000 (94% win rate)
- 0x8b14...d0b1 — Yes, $18,152 (71% win rate)
