What does the Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction market cover?

It predicts which player advances from their Erste Bank Open match: Tommy Paul or Carlos Alcaraz.

What are the prediction market odds for Paul vs Alcaraz?

A recent smart-money alert reports that 94% of winner-side backing favors Alcaraz. This is not necessarily the current market probability, so check the live market for updated odds.

When is the Erste Bank Open match scheduled?

The match is originally scheduled for October 30, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.

How does the Paul vs Alcaraz market resolve?

It resolves to the player who advances. If the match is canceled, tied, or has no determined winner by the market's stated deadline, the market's remaining resolution rules apply.

Part of: Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz

This Polymarket market covers who advances from the Erste Bank Open match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz, scheduled for October 30, 2026. A recent smart-money alert says 94% of winner-side backing favors Alcaraz; that figure reflects the alert, not necessarily the live market price, which can change.

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,389.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Profitable whale-led Paul buying cluster

Six-wallet flow and a sharp, highly profitable bettor are backing Tommy Paul amid a major volume spike, though some cluster members have weak records and existing positions.

A bettor with a 74% win rate and $2.48M in profit bought Tommy Paul at 32¢.
Six wallets put roughly $26,000 behind Paul as market volume spiked 70× above its historical average.
Several wallets are adding to existing positions, while the group’s entries span 32–38¢ and Paul is now around 34¢.

$14,785 on Tommy Paul

Six-wallet Alcaraz buying cluster

Six wallets put $32,031 on Alcaraz amid a 70x volume spike, creating a strong coordinated-flow signal despite the trader’s unexceptional odds-adjusted record.

Six wallets bought Carlos Alcaraz, totaling $32,031 on the same outcome.
Trading activity spiked to 70 times the market’s historical average.
The featured bettor has a huge sample, but their 70% win rate trails their 77¢ average winning price.

$1,015 on Carlos Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 70%

Six-wallet Alcaraz buying wave

A six-wallet $32,031 wave backing Alcaraz coincides with a 70.1x volume spike, making this coordinated flow notable despite the lead wallet’s modest recent price disadvantage.

Six wallets bought Carlos Alcaraz for a combined $32,031, signaling coordinated support.
Trading volume spiked to 70.1 times its historical average as this position was placed.
The lead wallet is up $7.8M across 68,382 resolved bets, though its 55% win rate is not decisive on its own.

$1,640 on Carlos Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 55%

89% winner adding to Alcaraz

A highly profitable tennis bettor with 89% wins is adding to a Carlos Alcaraz position at market odds.

This bettor has won 96 of 108 resolved bets and is up $176,944.
They are adding $1,400 to an existing Alcaraz position at 78¢, matching the current market price.
The bettor has traded across 38 events, with an 89% win rate in the cross-market profile.

$1,400 on Carlos Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 89%

94% winner backs Alcaraz

A highly profitable bettor with 244 resolved positions and a 94% win rate made a $26.5K buy on Alcaraz.

This bettor has won 229 of 244 resolved positions and is up $6.0M overall.
They put $26,550 on Alcaraz at 77¢, a sizable position from a serial cross-market trader.
The market prices Alcaraz at about 76%, close to this bettor’s entry.

$26,550 on Carlos Alcaraz | Wallet win rate: 94%