Part of: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?
This Polymarket market asks whether the active-month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will record a 1-minute candle high of $140 or more at any point in May 2026. It resolves after the May trading window, with prices taken exactly from Pyth data and final resolution scheduled for June 1, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $37,042 in smart money activity across 10 signals, including both long-shot Yes buying and experienced macro bettors buying No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $37,042.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
93% winner betting NO
Profitable 93% wallet is building a cross-market No position across related WTI oil spike markets, though this is a high-probability favorite in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $37.9K lifetime.
- They have put about $11K across 4 related markets, all pointing to the same oil-price thesis.
- Entry at 90¢ is a conservative favorite bet that pays if WTI stays below $140 in May.
$2,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner buying long-shot Yes
High-scoring alert from a 93% winning serial cross-market trader, effectively buying the 13¢ Yes side, with a 12-wallet funded cluster behind the account.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $47K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 13¢, a long-shot oil spike bet with about 7.7x upside if it hits.
- The wallet is part of a 12-wallet funded cluster, suggesting coordinated capital behind the thesis.
$1,017 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% winner fades oil spike
A high-win-rate wallet is putting $12.2k across four related oil markets, including a $3.5k BUY No position against WTI hitting $140 in May.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up about $37.9k lifetime.
- They have put $12.2k across four related oil markets, all pointing to a view that WTI will not spike hard in May.
- Entry at 88¢ is a conservative favorite bet, but the wallet’s track record makes the positioning worth following.
$3,463 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Undefeated macro bettor buys NO
Profitable 11-0 wallet is making a $6.5k No bet as part of a broader 3-market WTI ladder position against oil hitting extreme highs.
- This bettor has won 11 of 11 resolved trades and is up $9.2k lifetime.
- They have $13.6k spread across 3 related WTI markets, all pointing to the same oil-price thesis.
- Buying No at 87¢ is a high-conviction bet that WTI stays below the extreme $140 level in May.
$6,452 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
89% cross-market oil bettor
High-volume serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved record is positioning against WTI hitting $140, alongside a notable event-level volume spike.
- This bettor has won 89% of 621 resolved trades and is up about $146k lifetime.
- They have placed $11.7k across 3 related markets in this event, including $3.2k on No here.
- Market volume is running 14.9x above its historical pace, suggesting broader attention on this oil thesis.
$3,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
89% serial macro bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate is buying No on WTI hitting $140, though the trade is more high-probability than high-upside.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $146K lifetime.
- They have traded across 220 related markets with nearly $4.7M deployed, suggesting a repeatable macro strategy.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence No bet, with about 18% upside if it resolves correctly.
$2,590 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
89% macro trader buying NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved-bet win rate bought $7.8K of No on WTI hitting $140 in May.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $147K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $4.7M placed across 218 related markets.
- Bought $7.8K of No at 85¢, betting against a major WTI spike in May.
$7,815 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
93% serial trader buying NO
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate and $120k profit bought $3.5k of No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $120,678 lifetime.
- They have traded 340 markets across 223 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 85¢ backs the already-favored No side, but the trader’s long record makes the position worth tracking.
$3,489 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
94% serial bettor buying NO
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 94% resolved win record is buying No, backed by an 11-wallet funded cluster signal.
- This bettor has won 94% of resolved markets across 65 trades and has deployed nearly $2.0M historically.
- The wallet is part of an 11-wallet funded cluster that has appeared repeatedly in prior alerts.
- Buying No at 85¢ means the trader is backing the view that WTI stays below $140 through May.
$5,130 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
79% winner buying NO
Profitable high-sample bettor is buying No as part of a 4-market directional thesis, though the edge signal is only moderate and sizing is modest.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $261K lifetime.
- They have put $8K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
- Entry at 84¢ backs a high-probability No with the market still pricing some tail risk.
$1,672 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0x25db...28de — Yes, $71,892 (53% win rate)
- 0x7d0b...840a — Yes, $56,937
- 0xa6a0...4469 — No, $55,115 (75% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $52,594 (47% win rate)
- 0x993c...6787 — Yes, $38,000 (40% win rate)
- 0xafc0...5087 — Yes, $37,419 (63% win rate)
- 0x0e5b...a593 — No, $20,000 (54% win rate)
- 0x9981...dec4 — No, $18,413 (91% win rate)
- 0xa092...11e3 — No, $17,075 (98% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Yes, $16,010 (22% win rate)
Related Theses
Oil spikes but stays capped
Covers 4 related markets
