Part of: Germany vs. Paraguay - More Markets
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
35 smart money signals detected, totaling $393,121.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
$60K anti-Germany thesis
A single wallet is pushing a $60k cross-market Germany fade thesis, with Paraguay +1.5 rising sharply alongside a major volume spike despite the wallet lacking a strong long-term record.
- This bettor put about $60k across 3 related markets, backing Paraguay +1.5 and the under.
- Paraguay +1.5 jumped 28 percentage points as volume ran 24x above normal.
- This is a momentum and conviction signal, not a proven sharp-wallet signal; the wallet is down lifetime.
$36,919 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 53%
Profitable sharp in 12-wallet cluster
A highly profitable sports bettor with a 78% win rate is buying Germany alongside a 12-wallet same-direction cluster, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite the price moving lower after entry.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $370K lifetime.
- 12 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $27K in same-direction flow.
- The bettor paid 48¢ while the market is now around 40¢, offering a better price than their entry.
$1,142 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 78%
Perfect-record Germany cluster
A perfect-record sports bettor joined a 12-wallet one-sided Germany buy cluster, creating a strong copy-trade signal despite the price moving against their 48¢ entry.
- This bettor has won 25 of 25 resolved bets and is up $9.8k lifetime.
- 12 wallets are all buying Germany, with $27.2k flowing the same way.
- They entered at 48¢ while the market is now around 40¢, offering a cheaper copy entry than the original trade.
$1,500 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 100%
89% winner joins Germany cluster
Elite sports bettor with an 89% resolved win rate is buying Germany alongside a large 18-wallet one-sided cluster and heavy pre-event volume.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $1.54M lifetime.
- 18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6K on the same side.
- The bettor is a serial cross-market sports trader with $3.55M tracked across 279 events.
$2,000 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 88%
18-wallet one-sided cluster
Surface for coordinated one-sided flow: 18 wallets bought Germany for $125.6k with linked funding, despite this specific wallet having a poor long-term record.
- 18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6k on the same side.
- Four of those wallets share funding, suggesting one coordinated actor is pushing this view.
- Volume is spiking sharply before the match, with this market trading far above its normal pace.
$2,323 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 41%
18-wallet Germany buy wave
High-conviction coordinated Germany flow: 18 wallets bought the same side for $125.6k, including 4 linked wallets sharing a funder, alongside a profitable repeat bettor.
- 18 wallets are all buying Germany, totaling $125.6k on the same side.
- 4 of those wallets share the same funder, suggesting one actor is deploying capital across accounts.
- This wallet is up $9.9k and has won 7 of 9 resolved bets so far.
$2,551 on Germany | Wallet win rate: 73%
Elite sharp joins 11-wallet flow
Elite profitable wallet with a 92% resolved win rate is buying Paraguay, alongside 11-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-game volume spike.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $716K lifetime.
- 11 wallets are all buying Paraguay, totaling $133K in the same direction.
- Market volume is spiking 18.5x before kickoff, matching the one-sided Paraguay move.
$2,000 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 92%
Sharp bettor joins 11-wallet flow
Sharp 87% lifetime winner is buying Paraguay alongside heavy one-sided flow from 11 wallets on a very liquid World Cup spread market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $118K lifetime.
- 11 wallets bought the same side, totaling $133K on Paraguay.
- The wallet is a serial sports trader across 149 events with the same 87% hit rate.
$1,989 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 88%
78% serial sports sharp
Sharp serial sports trader with a 78% win rate bought Paraguay +1.5 during a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets across 73 markets and is up $18K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.82M in prior volume across 58 events.
- Paraguay +1.5 was bought at 54¢ as market activity spiked 35x above normal.
$26,000 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 80%
91% sports sharp buying dog
Surface because this is a proven sharp sports wallet with a 91% win rate and strong lifetime profit buying Paraguay, reinforced by serial cross-market success and a large linked-wallet cluster.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $95k lifetime.
- They have a strong cross-market record across 41 events, with the same 91% win rate.
- A 17-wallet funded cluster is associated with this flow, adding conviction behind the Paraguay side.
$2,080 on Paraguay | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x5b4e...0232 — Outcome 10690996, $336,022 (96% win rate)
- 0x032e...2a9e — Outcome 10690996, $188,798 (71% win rate)
- 0xdd88...dadb — Outcome 10690996, $150,000 (70% win rate)
- 0xe221...06f6 — Outcome 10690996, $137,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x03e8...1697 — Outcome 10690996, $61,403 (58% win rate)
- 0x208c...6b98 — Outcome 10690996, $58,783 (53% win rate)
- 0x10a6...4d8b — Outcome 10690996, $52,708 (73% win rate)
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 10690996, $51,020 (78% win rate)
- 0xf152...64aa — Outcome 10690996, $45,000 (65% win rate)
- 0x94d7...bef5 — Outcome 10690996, $44,812 (88% win rate)
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