Part of: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?
This Polymarket market asks whether the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will record any 1-minute candle with a final Low price at or above $95 during May 2026. It resolves after the May trading window, with final resolution scheduled for June 1, 2026, using Pyth-published prices exactly as reported. PolySpotter is tracking $2,346 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including sharp fades on Yes and oil thesis bettors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,854.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
New profitable oil bettor
A 13-day-old repeat large bettor with early profitability is fading Yes on WTI $95 after a sharp 1-day price drop, though the resolved sample is still small and mostly high-probability wins.
- This 13-day-old wallet is already up $555 and has made multiple flagged large bets.
- They are fading Yes after the market dropped 23 points in a day, aligning with recent momentum.
- The sell at 62¢ converts to buying No at 38¢, implying they see further downside from the current 36¢ No price.
$1,021 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
87% sharp fades Yes
Sharp 87% lifetime winner is fading Yes on a WTI oil level market while actively trading across 7 related markets.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $176k lifetime.
- They are active across 7 related oil markets with $131k positioned in this event.
- Selling Yes at 69¢ converts to buying No at 31¢, implying they see the market as overpriced.
$1,325 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable oil thesis wallet
Profitable wallet has built a large cross-market WTI thesis, with $112.9k across 12 related markets and a fresh BUY Yes at 87¢ after closing the opposite side.
- This wallet is up $89k lifetime and has positioned across 12 related WTI markets.
- The bettor has put $112.9k into this oil event, suggesting a broader conviction trade rather than a one-off bet.
- They closed a prior No position and bought Yes at 87¢, signaling a clear flip toward this outcome.
$2,640 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Profitable oil thesis trader
A profitable high-volume wallet is building a broad cross-market WTI oil thesis, buying Yes here as part of 12 related positions totaling $109k.
- This wallet is up $92.6k lifetime and has over $1.0M in tracked betting volume.
- They are positioning across 12 related oil markets with $109k total exposure, suggesting a broad WTI price thesis.
- This trade buys Yes at 88¢ after a 7-point one-day move, adding to momentum in an active market.
$2,217 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Profitable 12-market oil thesis
A profitable cross-market oil trader is building a broad directional thesis across 12 related WTI markets, though the win rate is only modest.
- This bettor is up about $90k lifetime and has traded over $1M despite only a 52% hit rate.
- They have positions across 12 related WTI markets totaling about $106k, suggesting a broad oil-price thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought Yes at 88¢ and the market has already moved to 90¢, with the price up 9 points today.
$2,640 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
$97k oil ladder bettor
Wallet is building a large cross-market WTI thesis across 11 related markets with nearly $100k deployed and positive lifetime P&L, making this more notable than a one-off bet.
- This bettor has put about $97k across 11 related WTI markets, suggesting a broad directional thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up about $47.9k despite only winning 47% of resolved bets.
- Entry at 84¢ is a high-conviction favorite bet, with the market still showing tight 82¢/84¢ pricing.
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Broad WTI thesis bettor
Wallet is expressing a broad cross-market WTI thesis across 11 related markets with nearly $96k deployed and positive lifetime P&L, though its hit rate is only modest.
- This bettor has put nearly $96k across 11 related WTI oil markets, showing a broad directional thesis.
- The wallet is profitable overall, up about $47k on $764k invested across resolved bets.
- This entry at 82¢ suggests they see the $95 WTI threshold as highly likely before May ends.
$2,460 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 49%
Top Holders
- 0x72a0...c059 — Yes, $63,310 (49% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $51,064 (58% win rate)
- 0x8088...d2ea — No, $14,580
- 0xe94b...5abe — No, $11,714 (73% win rate)
- 0x0e5b...a593 — Yes, $9,643 (54% win rate)
- 0xf579...9989 — Yes, $9,000 (66% win rate)
- 0xe2b1...7d2a — No, $8,466 (45% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — Yes, $8,451 (41% win rate)
- 0x5226...8554 — No, $4,992 (76% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $3,200 (68% win rate)
Related Theses
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