Part of: Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
This prediction market covers the Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three match between Astralis and paiN in IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Round 4, scheduled for June 8 at 8:00 AM ET. The page tracks live Polymarket odds and $9,440 in smart money activity across 3 signals, including sharp buying on both Astralis and paiN. The market resolves to the winning team, or 50-50 if the match is canceled, tied, or delayed more than 7 days without a winner.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Astralis and paiN in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 2, initially scheduled for June 8 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against paiN. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $121,659.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
84% winner buying paiN
Sharp esports bettor with an 84% win rate over 2,163 resolved trades bought paiN despite the market later moving against their entry.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades across 2,163 bets and is up $41.7K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 57 events and $146K tracked volume.
- They bought paiN at 84¢, while the market is now around 74¢, offering a cheaper entry than the original trade.
$2,121 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 84%
4-wallet funded underdog cluster
A known 4-wallet funded cluster is buying Astralis, though the position is currently underwater and the wallet's track record is only modestly positive.
- Four wallets funded by the same address are taking the same side, with this wallet adding $5.6k.
- This wallet is profitable overall, up $72k across $3.3M traded, but only wins 53% of resolved bets.
- Astralis has dropped from their 38¢ entry to 26¢, so the cluster is early and currently underwater.
$5,643 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 53%
Sharp esports bettor on paiN
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 79% long-term win record and over $500k profit bought paiN despite only a modest single-trade size.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $504k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 170 events with the same 79% win record.
- Entry at 62¢ suggests they see paiN as meaningfully stronger than Astralis here.
$1,677 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable serial esports bettor
Profitable high-volume bettor bought paiN early at 40¢ before the market moved to 64¢, alongside a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has 7,151 resolved trades and is up $138k lifetime.
- They bought paiN at 40¢ before the price jumped to 64¢.
- Market volume spiked 56x before the match, suggesting strong pre-event positioning.
$1,541 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 56%
97% winner bought early
Elite esports bettor with a 97% historical win rate and nearly $923k profit bought Astralis at 54%, well before the market moved to 70%.
- This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up about $923k lifetime.
- They bought Astralis at 54%, and the market has already moved to 70%.
- This wallet has traded across 134 events with the same 97% hit rate, suggesting a strong repeatable edge.
$1,300 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 97%
89% win-rate sharp
A highly profitable 89% winner with a long cross-market track record bought Astralis despite the market later moving against the entry.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $163K lifetime.
- They have traded 114 markets across 88 events, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- They bought Astralis at 67¢; the market is now 57¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.
$3,989 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 89%
Elite bettor on Astralis
Proven high-volume winner with 77% historical win rate and $3.19M profit bought Astralis despite the market moving slightly against the entry.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $3.19M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with over $5.1M deployed across 824 markets.
- They bought Astralis at 62¢; the market is now around 57–58¢, offering a better price than their entry.
$3,998 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 77%
94% winner buying underdog
Elite 94% winning wallet with $1.37M profit is buying paiN alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved bets and is up $1.37M lifetime.
- They bought $6.3K of paiN around 41–42¢, implying they see value in the underdog.
- Other wallets are piling in too: 6 wallets bought the same side for about $20K amid a 30x+ volume spike.
$6,284 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp funded cluster buying Astralis
Surface this: a 5-wallet Astralis cluster includes a 95% winning bettor up $236k, linked wallets, and a 30x pre-event volume spike.
- A bettor who wins 95% of their bets is backing Astralis and is up $236,734 lifetime.
- Five wallets bought the same side for $21,024, with four wallets sharing the same funder.
- Volume is nearly 30x normal, and the entry around 38¢ implies a strong underdog conviction.
$21,024 on Astralis
Sharp serial esports bettor
Sharp esports bettor with an 86% record bought Astralis, alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $41.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events with the same 86% win rate.
- Three wallets bought Astralis the same way, while market volume spiked 118x before the match.
$2,000 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xee00...cea1 — paiN, $128,197 (62% win rate)
- 0x1136...0c2e — Astralis, $96,285 (49% win rate)
- 0x73e3...1be9 — paiN, $84,108 (100% win rate)
- 0xcd36...0f01 — paiN, $60,000
- 0xdb85...152f — paiN, $50,000 (66% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Astralis, $50,000 (77% win rate)
- 0x6adc...beba — Astralis, $41,491 (33% win rate)
- 0x5257...3e2a — Astralis, $31,140 (53% win rate)
- 0x9854...6bf2 — Astralis, $30,000 (59% win rate)
- 0x0a63...fc03 — Astralis, $24,235 (81% win rate)
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