Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the global temperature increase in April 2026 will come in below 1.10°C. Traders on Polymarket are pricing the odds of that climate outcome ahead of the market’s resolution on May 10, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,436 in smart money activity across 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,436.

Categories: Weather, Science

Notable Trades

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

A bettor with a 90% win rate made a $3.4k buy into an extremely illiquid climate market, suggesting conviction despite the market being niche and thin.

  • This bettor wins 90% of their resolved trades and is up $26.4k overall
  • They put $3.4k into a market with essentially no 24h volume and only $107 of listed liquidity
  • The trade was made at 78¢, which suggests a strong view that this outcome is much more likely than the current 42¢ price

$3,436 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $6,784
  2. 0xa49b...7054 — Yes, $5,404 (95% win rate)
  3. 0x1186...051b — No, $4,745 (62% win rate)
  4. 0xfde5...676c — Yes, $2,638
  5. 0xe260...3f01 — Yes, $587
  6. 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $414
  7. 0x8e6e...2259 — Yes, $399
  8. 0xe5ed...5e8c — Yes, $300
  9. 0xcf00...353f — Yes, $299
  10. 0x4cd0...5e51 — Yes, $272

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

19d$3,436 tracked1 signalWeatherScience
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Price History — “No”
100¢
97¢
93¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?

26d ago

$3,436 on Yes at 78¢

78¢→3¢↓75¢