Part of: Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro

Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $39,596.

Notable Trades

3-wallet Passaro fade

Surface as a contrarian Passaro cluster: three wallets all took the Passaro side during a volatile tennis move, including one bettor with a 93% resolved-bet record, though the signal is mixed because another large wallet has poor history.

Three wallets put $8.2k on the Passaro side during a sharp in-match price swing.
One wallet in the cluster wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $2.7k lifetime.
The latest large trade effectively bought Passaro around 22¢ after McDonald’s price spike.

$8,161 on Francesco Passaro

93% tennis winner buying

Sharp tennis bettor with a 93% resolved win record bought Francesco Passaro despite only a weak price-impact alert.

This bettor has won 67 of 72 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
They bought Francesco Passaro at 62¢, above the current 52¢ market price.
The signal itself is weak, but the wallet’s strong track record makes the trade worth watching.

$1,250 on Francesco Passaro | Wallet win rate: 94%

Profitable serial bettor

A profitable serial sports bettor with a 71% win rate and $135.9k lifetime profit took a $5k position, though the price has since moved against the entry.

This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $135.9k lifetime.
They have traded 199 related sports events with $630k in total volume.
The $5k buy briefly pushed Passaro up 10 points, but the market has since fallen below their 60¢ entry.

$5,000 on Francesco Passaro | Wallet win rate: 77%

Serial bettor riding momentum

High composite alert driven by a serial cross-market bettor buying into a sharp Passaro move alongside a 42x pre-event volume spike.

Market volume spiked 42x before the match, with Passaro’s price jumping about 24 points.
This wallet has traded across 186 events, so this is part of a broad repeat betting pattern rather than a one-off click.
Entry at 75¢ implies a favorite bet with room only if the move continues.

$1,600 on Francesco Passaro | Wallet win rate: 65%

Sharp bettor backing Passaro

Sharp sports bettor with an 82% win rate and $634k lifetime profit bought Passaro, alongside a major pre-event volume spike and price move.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $634k lifetime.
They are a serial sports trader across 109 events with the same 82% hit rate.
Their $5.9k buy helped push Passaro from 51¢ to 54¢ amid a 132x volume spike.

$5,895 on Francesco Passaro | Wallet win rate: 83%

82% win-rate sports sharp

A highly profitable 82% win-rate bettor put $17.7k on Francesco Passaro, with corroborating pre-event volume spike and immediate price movement from ~50% to 54%.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $634k lifetime.
They put $17.7k on Francesco Passaro across three quick buys around 50¢.
The market saw a huge pre-event volume spike, and Passaro has already moved to 54%.

$17,690 on Francesco Passaro | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

0x55a1...db28 — Outcome 10332980, $35,378 (83% win rate)
0x54ba...04e4 — Outcome 10332980, $8,335 (77% win rate)
0x6982...a165 — Outcome 10332980, $2,950 (99% win rate)
0x6261...2e11 — Outcome 10332980, $2,016 (94% win rate)
0x1d13...643c — Outcome 10332980, $2,000 (68% win rate)
0xeaf3...e802 — Outcome 10332980, $1,236 (82% win rate)
0x5b57...de6b — Outcome 10332980, $766 (52% win rate)
0x815f...1eef — Outcome 10332980, $518 (88% win rate)
0xe89c...9c72 — Outcome 10332980, $398
0x9625...5bb7 — Outcome 10332980, $139 (73% win rate)

Related Theses

T1 wins, Gen.G takes Game 3

Covers 4 related markets

Majchrzak beats Svajda

Covers 1 related market

Svajda beats Majchrzak at Wimbledon

Covers 1 related market

Fearnley beats Munar

Covers 1 related market

KT Rolster wins Game 2

Covers 1 related market

Uzbekistan wins on June 27

Covers 1 related market

Ben Shelton beats Shimabukuro

Covers 1 related market

Fery beats Mannarino

Covers 1 related market

Emma Navarro beats Selekhmeteva

Covers 1 related market

Guido Justo beats Milic

Covers 1 related market

Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro

ResolvedTargu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro$39,596 tracked6 signalsSportsTennisGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Niels McDonald and Francesco Passaro in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for June 24, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Niels McDonald' if Niels McDonald advances against Francesco Passaro. This market will resolve to 'Francesco Passaro' if Francesco Passaro advances against Niels McDonald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.