Part of: LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
This Polymarket covers the LPL Group Ascend best-of-three League of Legends match between Top Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas, scheduled for May 12 at 5:00AM ET and resolving by the listed May 12, 2026 resolution time. The market pays out to the team that wins the match, with cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond 7 days handled under the market rules. PolySpotter is tracking $23,181 in smart money across 2 signals, including coordinated Top Esports buying and sharp underdog interest.
This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 12 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $25,681.
Categories: Esports, league of legends, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
93% winner backing favorite
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 93% resolved win rate is buying Top Esports despite only a modest standalone signal.
- This bettor has won 13 of 14 resolved bets and is up $4,542 lifetime.
- Their past wins came at average odds of 66%, so the 93% hit rate looks meaningfully above market expectations.
- They bought Top Esports at 71¢, implying confidence the favorite is still underpriced.
$1,420 on Top Esports | Wallet win rate: 93%
10-wallet coordinated Top Esports buy
A high-conviction 10-wallet cluster bought $21.8k of Top Esports at 71¢, backed by repeated linked-wallet patterns, a major volume spike, and several profitable small-sample wallets.
- 10 wallets all bought Top Esports within minutes, totaling $21.8k at 71¢.
- Several wallet groups share funders, suggesting coordinated conviction behind the same side.
- This market saw a 155x volume spike, and multiple wallets in the cluster are already profitable on prior resolved bets.
$21,761 on Top Esports
87% winner on underdog
Sharp esports bettor with an 87% resolved win rate and strong cross-market history is taking the underdog Ninjas in Pyjamas at 33¢ in a relatively small market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $42.4K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market record: 34 events traded with the same 87% win rate.
- The $1.5K buy is large for this market, equal to about 64% of recent 24h volume.
$1,500 on Ninjas in Pyjamas | Wallet win rate: 87%
Sharp underdog buyer
Sharp wallet with an 82% historical win rate and strong profit is buying the 30¢ underdog in a relatively quiet esports market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $163,764 lifetime.
- They bought the 30¢ underdog in a market with only $2,339 traded in the last 24 hours.
- Entry at 30¢ implies they see Ninjas in Pyjamas as a mispriced ~3.3x payout.
$1,000 on Ninjas in Pyjamas | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x1341...0853 — Ninjas in Pyjamas, $25,000 (86% win rate)
- 0xe0db...f44e — Ninjas in Pyjamas, $6,000 (48% win rate)
- 0xef26...05ba — Ninjas in Pyjamas, $4,750 (73% win rate)
- 0x8adc...bafc — Top Esports, $4,662 (56% win rate)
- 0x34a5...9450 — Ninjas in Pyjamas, $4,580 (87% win rate)
- 0x4b59...3aa6 — Top Esports, $4,152 (61% win rate)
- 0x3eee...c8f9 — Top Esports, $4,083 (100% win rate)
- 0xa565...0892 — Top Esports, $3,927 (100% win rate)
- 0x6f77...3b9e — Top Esports, $3,540 (100% win rate)
- 0x154b...0ffb — Top Esports, $3,522 (83% win rate)
Related Theses
Ninjas in Pyjamas upset Top Esports
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JD Gaming wins series
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